Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 17:00
28d 17h to kick-offIK Start – Lillestrøm SK
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- IK Start
- 45%
- Draw
- 30%
- Lillestrøm SK
- 25%
| IK Start | Draw | Lillestrøm SK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.23 | 3.31 | 4.01 |
- Total goals
- 2.61
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans IK Start
45% IK Start to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 7th
- IK Start attack v Lillestrøm SK defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 12th
- IK Start defence v Lillestrøm SK attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.21 vs -0.28
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.51 – 1.10
- IK Start v Lillestrøm SK
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | IK Start | Lillestrøm SK |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.36 · 11th | (better) 1.56 · 7th |
| xGA / match | 1.61 · 10th | (better) 1.46 · 7th |
| xGD / match | -0.25 · 10th | (better) +0.10 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 1.19 · 10th | (better) 1.46 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.21 | -0.28 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- IK Start clean sheet
- 30%
- IK Start 2+ goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.4%
- 2:1
- 10.9%
- 1:0
- 8.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- IK Start sample
- 20 matches
- Lillestrøm SK sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · IK Start
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · Lillestrøm SK
- 11 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.