Kristiansund BK 1:3 Rosenborg BK: xG & match report · Eliteserien

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 16:00

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Match report · Eliteserien

Kristiansund BK Home 0.83 xG · 15 shots

Rosenborg BK Away 2.55 xG · 16 shots

13 The scoreline reflected the chances

Rosenborg BK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was Rosenborg BK's attack: 2.55 xG against 1.31 projected (+1.24). Kristiansund BK produced 0.83 xG against 1.20 projected (−0.37).

Goals

31' David Tufekcic Kristiansund BK · 0.05 xG chance 1–0
33' Mads Bomholt Rosenborg BK · 0.05 xG chance 1–1
50' Noah Sahsah Rosenborg BK · 0.32 xG chance 1–2
83' Amin Chiakha Rosenborg BK · 0.14 xG chance 1–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Kristiansund BK: 31%
Draw: 32%
Rosenborg BK: 37% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Kristiansund BK 1.20 0.83 -0.37

Rosenborg BK 1.31 2.55 +1.24

Rosenborg BK produced 1.24 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Kristiansund BK Rosenborg BK

Shots: 15; 16
On target: 6; 6
Inside the box: 9; 12
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.17
Open play xG: 0.65; 1.92
Set-piece xG: 0.13; 0.72
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.83 for Kristiansund BK and 2.62 for Rosenborg BK.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 3.42 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Kristiansund BK
Rosenborg BK
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Kristiansund BK

0.94 xG created 1.82 xGA

L 1.22 created, 1.23 conceded against KFUM Oslo
W 0.66 created, 3.21 conceded against Molde FK
L 1.28 created, 1.15 conceded against Fredrikstad FK
D 1.13 created, 0.71 conceded against HamKam
W 0.65 created, 0.35 conceded against Tromsø IL
L 0.70 created, 4.27 conceded against Viking FK

Rosenborg BK

1.85 xG created 1.77 xGA

L 1.93 created, 0.78 conceded against SK Brann
W 2.45 created, 2.39 conceded against Lillestrøm SK
W 1.37 created, 1.86 conceded against Viking FK
L 1.04 created, 2.93 conceded against Bodø/Glimt
W 2.49 created, 0.48 conceded against HamKam
W 1.81 created, 2.20 conceded against Tromsø IL

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Kristiansund BK: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged1 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Kristiansund BK against Rosenborg BK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Rosenborg BK not to score	9.00	+119.1%	Lost
Kristiansund BK to win	5.75	+80.5%	Lost
Rosenborg BK at most 1 goal	2.75	+69.4%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	6.50	+58.4%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.88	+53.2%	Lost
Draw	4.50	+42.3%	Lost
Kristiansund BK 2+ goals	3.00	+2.4%	Lost
Kristiansund BK to score	1.40	+1.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Kristiansund BK	31.4%	16.4%	+15.0 pp	3.19
Draw	31.6%	20.9%	+10.7 pp	3.16
Rosenborg BK	37.0%	62.7%	−25.7 pp	2.70

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Kristiansund BK to score	72.6%	66.3%	+6.4 pp	1.38
Kristiansund BK not to score	27.4%	33.7%	−6.4 pp	3.65
Rosenborg BK to score	75.7%	89.4%	−13.7 pp	1.32
Rosenborg BK not to score	24.3%	10.6%	+13.7 pp	4.11
Both teams to score	56.8%	58.9%	−2.1 pp	1.76
Both teams not to score	43.2%	41.1%	+2.1 pp	2.32
Kristiansund BK 2+ goals	34.1%	31.3%	+2.9 pp	2.93
Kristiansund BK at most 1 goal	65.9%	68.7%	−2.9 pp	1.52
Rosenborg BK 2+ goals	38.4%	66.3%	−27.9 pp	2.60
Rosenborg BK at most 1 goal	61.6%	33.7%	+27.9 pp	1.62
Over 1.5 goals	75.6%	85.4%	−9.8 pp	1.32
Under 1.5 goals	24.4%	14.6%	+9.8 pp	4.10
Over 2.5 goals	46.7%	67.3%	−20.5 pp	2.14
Under 2.5 goals	53.3%	32.7%	+20.5 pp	1.88

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Kristiansund BK sample: 20 matches
Rosenborg BK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.