Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 17:00
33d 13h to kick-offLillestrøm SK – Aalesunds FK
Model updated 6 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Lillestrøm SK
- 44%
- Draw
- 29%
- Aalesunds FK
- 27%
| Lillestrøm SK | Draw | Aalesunds FK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.28 | 3.45 | 3.67 |
- Total goals
- 2.84
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Lillestrøm SK
44% Lillestrøm SK to win
- Attack
- 12th vs 16th
- Lillestrøm SK attack v Aalesunds FK defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 6th
- Lillestrøm SK defence v Aalesunds FK attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.28 vs -0.55
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.59 – 1.24
- Lillestrøm SK v Aalesunds FK
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Lillestrøm SK | Aalesunds FK |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.56 · 7th | 1.40 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.46 · 7th | 1.98 · 16th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.10 · 7th | -0.58 · 14th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.46 · 6th | 1.04 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.28 | -0.55 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Lillestrøm SK clean sheet
- 26%
- Lillestrøm SK 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.4%
- 2:1
- 10.8%
- 1:2
- 8.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lillestrøm SK sample
- 20 matches
- Aalesunds FK sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Lillestrøm SK
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · Aalesunds FK
- 10 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.