xgEdge

Expected goals

Lillestrøm SK expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Eliteserien · after 21 matches · updated 4 Oct

Lillestrøm SK's attacking and defensive expected goals in Eliteserien 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Lillestrøm SK xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.56 xG per match
#7/16
Attack (xG per match) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Bodø/Glimt 2.31
#2 Viking FK 2.09
#3 Molde FK 1.83
#4 Tromsø IL 1.60
#5 SK Brann 1.58
#6 Rosenborg BK 1.56
#7 Lillestrøm SK 1.56
#8 Vålerenga IF 1.55
#9 Sarpsborg 08 1.51
#10 Aalesunds FK 1.40
#11 IK Start 1.36
#12 Fredrikstad FK 1.20
#13 Sandefjord Fotball 1.18
#14 HamKam 1.14
#15 KFUM Oslo 1.09
#16 Kristiansund BK 0.97
League avg
1.50
Total
32.67 21 matches
Defence
1.46 xGA per match
#7/16
Defence (xGA per match) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Bodø/Glimt 0.90
#2 Viking FK 1.16
#3 Molde FK 1.17
#4 Tromsø IL 1.23
#5 Sarpsborg 08 1.40
#6 Rosenborg BK 1.42
#7 Lillestrøm SK 1.46
#8 SK Brann 1.53
#9 Sandefjord Fotball 1.59
#10 IK Start 1.61
#11 Vålerenga IF 1.63
#12 HamKam 1.66
#13 Fredrikstad FK 1.67
#14 Kristiansund BK 1.72
#15 KFUM Oslo 1.78
#16 Aalesunds FK 1.98
League avg
1.50
Total
30.60 21 matches
xG difference
+0.10 xGD per match
#7/16
xG difference (xGD per match) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Bodø/Glimt +1.41
#2 Viking FK +0.93
#3 Molde FK +0.66
#4 Tromsø IL +0.37
#5 Rosenborg BK +0.14
#6 Sarpsborg 08 +0.11
#7 Lillestrøm SK +0.10
#8 SK Brann +0.05
#9 Vålerenga IF -0.08
#10 IK Start -0.25
#11 Sandefjord Fotball -0.41
#12 Fredrikstad FK -0.47
#13 HamKam -0.52
#14 Aalesunds FK -0.58
#15 KFUM Oslo -0.69
#16 Kristiansund BK -0.75
League avg
0.00
Total
+2.07 21 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.46 xPts per match
#6/16
Expected points (xPts per match) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Bodø/Glimt 2.24
#2 Viking FK 1.97
#3 Molde FK 1.80
#4 Tromsø IL 1.68
#5 Rosenborg BK 1.52
#6 Lillestrøm SK 1.46
#7 Sarpsborg 08 1.45
#8 SK Brann 1.40
#9 Vålerenga IF 1.33
#10 IK Start 1.19
#11 Fredrikstad FK 1.10
#12 Sandefjord Fotball 1.09
#13 HamKam 1.05
#14 Aalesunds FK 1.04
#15 Kristiansund BK 0.95
#16 KFUM Oslo 0.94
League avg
1.39
Total
30.76 vs 32 actual pts

What the xG says

Lillestrøm SK's underlying numbers sit close to the Eliteserien average. They rank #7 for xG difference at +0.10 per match, from about average shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 28 goals are 4.67 below 32.67 xG, while 32 points are 1.24 above 30.76 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 5.41 xG from penalties
28 32.67 -4.67 scored 4.67 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
29 30.60 -1.60 conceded 1.60 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
32 30.76 +1.24 1.24 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Lillestrøm SK are 4.67 goals below their xG after 21 matches. The gap was widest at -4.87, against Fredrikstad FK on Sun 30/08.

Goals
28
xG
32.67
Gap
-4.67
Sun 15/03 Mon 06/04 Sat 11/04 Wed 15/04 Sun 19/04 Sun 26/04 Sun 03/05 Sun 10/05 Sat 16/05 Wed 20/05 Mon 25/05 Sat 11/07 Sat 18/07 Wed 22/07 Fri 31/07 Sun 09/08 Sat 15/08 Sun 30/08 Sat 05/09 Sat 12/09 Sun 20/09 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +0.64 +0.14 +1.33 -0.05 +0.24 -0.84 +0.79 +0.38 +1.47 +1.46 -0.13 +0.63 +1.39 +1.04 +0.66 -1.73 -3.53 -4.87 -4.20 -2.90 -4.67 +0.64 -0.50 +1.19 -1.38 +0.29 -1.08 +1.63 -0.41 +1.09 -0.01 -1.59 +0.76 +0.76 -0.35 -0.38 -2.39 -1.80 -1.34 +0.67 +1.30 -1.77 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Lillestrøm SK: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 15/03 Aalesunds FK 3 2.36 +0.64 +0.64
Mon 06/04 Molde FK 1 1.50 -0.50 +0.14
Sat 11/04 IK Start 3 1.81 +1.19 +1.33
Wed 15/04 Tromsø IL 0 1.38 -1.38 -0.05
Sun 19/04 Vålerenga IF 2 1.71 +0.29 +0.24
Sun 26/04 Bodø/Glimt 0 1.08 -1.08 -0.84
Sun 03/05 Sarpsborg 08 4 2.37 +1.63 +0.79
Sun 10/05 Rosenborg BK 0 0.41 -0.41 +0.38
Sat 16/05 Sandefjord Fotball 3 1.91 +1.09 +1.47
Wed 20/05 Kristiansund BK 1 1.01 -0.01 +1.46
Mon 25/05 HamKam 0 1.59 -1.59 -0.13
Sat 11/07 Fredrikstad FK 2 1.24 +0.76 +0.63
Sat 18/07 KFUM Oslo 2 1.24 +0.76 +1.39
Wed 22/07 Viking FK 1 1.35 -0.35 +1.04
Fri 31/07 Bodø/Glimt 0 0.38 -0.38 +0.66
Sun 09/08 Rosenborg BK 0 2.39 -2.39 -1.73
Sat 15/08 KFUM Oslo 1 2.80 -1.80 -3.53
Sun 30/08 Fredrikstad FK 1 2.34 -1.34 -4.87
Sat 05/09 SK Brann 2 1.33 +0.67 -4.20
Sat 12/09 Vålerenga IF 2 0.70 +1.30 -2.90
Sun 20/09 Viking FK 0 1.77 -1.77 -4.67

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

Lillestrøm SK xG trend

Current form -0.24 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 11 of 21 matches. The worst was against Bodø/Glimt on Fri 31/07 (-1.22).

npxG · last 6
1.56
npxGA · last 6
1.80
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 +1.29 Sun 15/03 +0.47 Mon 06/04 +1.09 Sat 11/04 +0.02 Wed 15/04 +0.07 Sun 19/04 +0.45 Sun 26/04 -0.04 Sun 03/05 -0.68 Sun 10/05 +0.78 Sat 16/05 -0.28 Wed 20/05 +0.30 Mon 25/05 +0.36 Sat 11/07 +0.71 Sat 18/07 -0.29 Wed 22/07 -1.22 Fri 31/07 -0.08 Sun 09/08 +1.09 Sat 15/08 -0.90 Sun 30/08 -0.55 Sat 05/09 -0.89 Sat 12/09 -0.12 Sun 20/09 +0.08 season avg
Lillestrøm SK: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 15/03 Aalesunds FK 2.23 0.94 +1.29 +1.29
Mon 06/04 Molde FK 1.50 1.03 +0.47 +0.88
Sat 11/04 IK Start 1.82 0.73 +1.09 +0.95
Wed 15/04 Tromsø IL 1.31 1.29 +0.02 +0.72
Sun 19/04 Vålerenga IF 1.14 1.07 +0.07 +0.59
Sun 26/04 Bodø/Glimt 1.08 0.63 +0.45 +0.56
Sun 03/05 Sarpsborg 08 0.79 0.83 -0.04 +0.48
Sun 10/05 Rosenborg BK 0.41 1.09 -0.68 +0.33
Sat 16/05 Sandefjord Fotball 1.82 1.04 +0.78 +0.38
Wed 20/05 Kristiansund BK 0.78 1.06 -0.28 +0.32
Mon 25/05 HamKam 1.59 1.29 +0.30 +0.32
Sat 11/07 Fredrikstad FK 1.22 0.86 +0.36 +0.32
Sat 18/07 KFUM Oslo 1.27 0.56 +0.71 +0.35
Wed 22/07 Viking FK 0.58 0.87 -0.29 +0.30
Fri 31/07 Bodø/Glimt 0.35 1.57 -1.22 +0.20
Sun 09/08 Rosenborg BK 2.24 2.32 -0.08 +0.18
Sat 15/08 KFUM Oslo 2.01 0.92 +1.09 +0.24
Sun 30/08 Fredrikstad FK 1.39 2.29 -0.90 +0.17
Sat 05/09 SK Brann 1.33 1.88 -0.55 +0.14
Sat 12/09 Vålerenga IF 0.70 1.59 -0.89 +0.08
Sun 20/09 Viking FK 1.70 1.82 -0.12 +0.08

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.30 npxG and 1.22 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 1 hardest of 16 in Eliteserien
+0.04 xG vs league average
Over 21 league matches
Last 5
number 11 hardest of 16 in Eliteserien
−0.05 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.04 xG vs league average · over 21 matches · number 1 hardest of 16

  1. Viking FK Away +0.35
  2. Vålerenga IF Home +0.11
  3. SK Brann Away 0.00
  4. Fredrikstad FK Home −0.20
  5. KFUM Oslo Away −0.52
  6. Rosenborg BK Home +0.14
  7. Bodø/Glimt Away +0.79
  8. Viking FK Home +0.35
  9. KFUM Oslo Home −0.52
  10. Fredrikstad FK Away −0.20
  11. HamKam Away −0.51
  12. Kristiansund BK Home −0.36
  13. Sandefjord Fotball Home −0.13
  14. Rosenborg BK Away +0.14
  15. Sarpsborg 08 Home +0.08
  16. Bodø/Glimt Home +0.79
  17. Vålerenga IF Away +0.11
  18. Tromsø IL Away +0.08
  19. IK Start Home +0.04
  20. Molde FK Away +0.35
  21. Aalesunds FK Away −0.12

Last 5

−0.05 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 11 hardest of 16

  1. Viking FK Away +0.35
  2. Vålerenga IF Home +0.11
  3. SK Brann Away 0.00
  4. Fredrikstad FK Home −0.20
  5. KFUM Oslo Away −0.52

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Lillestrøm SK shots and chance quality

Average volume, average quality. Lillestrøm SK take 12.5 shots a match (league 13.8) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #12 in Eliteserien for volume and #5 for quality. 69% of their shots come from inside the box (league 69%), and set pieces produce 24% of their npxG (league 24%).

Attack

Shot volume
12.5 shots per match
#12/16
Shot volume (shots per match) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Bodø/Glimt 17.7
=2 Viking FK 16.2
=2 Vålerenga IF 16.2
#4 Aalesunds FK 15.6
#5 Molde FK 15.4
#6 Sandefjord Fotball 14.5
#7 SK Brann 14.1
#8 IK Start 14.0
#9 Rosenborg BK 13.6
#10 Tromsø IL 13.5
#11 Sarpsborg 08 13.3
#12 Lillestrøm SK 12.5
#13 Kristiansund BK 12.5
#14 Fredrikstad FK 11.3
#15 KFUM Oslo 10.5
#16 HamKam 10.4
League avg
13.8
Total
263 shots from 21 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#5/16
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Bodø/Glimt 0.11
#2 Tromsø IL 0.11
#3 Viking FK 0.11
#4 Molde FK 0.11
#5 Lillestrøm SK 0.10
#6 Rosenborg BK 0.10
#7 Sarpsborg 08 0.10
#8 Fredrikstad FK 0.10
#9 HamKam 0.10
#10 SK Brann 0.10
#11 KFUM Oslo 0.09
#12 IK Start 0.09
#13 Vålerenga IF 0.09
#14 Aalesunds FK 0.09
#15 Kristiansund BK 0.08
#16 Sandefjord Fotball 0.07
League avg
0.10
Total
27.26 npxG from 263 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
13.9 shots per match
#7/16
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Bodø/Glimt 8.3
#2 Tromsø IL 11.2
#3 Molde FK 12.0
#4 Viking FK 13.0
#5 Sarpsborg 08 13.1
#6 Rosenborg BK 13.3
#7 Lillestrøm SK 13.9
#8 SK Brann 14.4
#9 IK Start 14.4
#10 KFUM Oslo 14.7
#11 Vålerenga IF 14.8
#12 Fredrikstad FK 15.0
=13 Kristiansund BK 15.0
=13 Sandefjord Fotball 15.0
#15 HamKam 16.4
#16 Aalesunds FK 16.9
League avg
13.8
Total
291 shots allowed from 21 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.09 npxGA per shot
#3/16
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Viking FK 0.08
#2 Sandefjord Fotball 0.09
#3 Lillestrøm SK 0.09
#4 Sarpsborg 08 0.09
#5 Molde FK 0.09
#6 IK Start 0.10
#7 SK Brann 0.10
#8 Vålerenga IF 0.10
#9 Fredrikstad FK 0.10
#10 HamKam 0.10
#11 Kristiansund BK 0.10
#12 Rosenborg BK 0.10
#13 Tromsø IL 0.10
#14 KFUM Oslo 0.10
#15 Bodø/Glimt 0.11
#16 Aalesunds FK 0.11
League avg
0.10
Total
25.68 npxGA from 291 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

69% inside the box

League avg 69%

From 181 of 263 shots over 21 matches

Shots allowed, location

67% allowed inside the box

League avg 69%

From 195 of 291 shots allowed over 21 matches

Where the npxG comes from

76% open play · 24% set pieces

League avg 24% set pieces

From 6.6 of 27.3 npxG over 21 matches

Where the npxG allowed comes from

75% open play · 25% set pieces

League avg 24% set pieces

From 6.4 of 25.8 npxG allowed over 21 matches

How the shot figures are made →

Lillestrøm SK home and away xG

Lillestrøm SK per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 10 11
xG / match 1.62 1.50
xGA / match 1.30 1.60
xGD / match +0.32 -0.10
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.63 1.32

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Lillestrøm SK match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Away this season

Matches
11
xG / match
1.50
xGA / match
1.60
xGD / match
-0.10
Points
17 of 33
  1. Sun 20/09 Viking FK A xG 1.77 xGA 2.98 P xGD -1.21
  2. Sat 05/09 SK Brann A xG 1.33 xGA 1.97 xGD -0.64
  3. Sat 15/08 KFUM Oslo A Best underlying xG 2.80 P xGA 0.92 xGD +1.88
  4. Fri 31/07 Bodø/Glimt A Weakest underlying xG 0.38 xGA 2.15 P xGD -1.77
  5. Sat 11/07 Fredrikstad FK A xG 1.24 xGA 1.17 xGD +0.07
  6. Mon 25/05 HamKam A xG 1.59 xGA 1.29 xGD +0.30
  7. Sun 10/05 Rosenborg BK A xG 0.41 xGA 1.88 P xGD -1.47
  8. Sun 19/04 Vålerenga IF A xG 1.71 P xGA 1.09 xGD +0.62
  9. Wed 15/04 Tromsø IL A xG 1.38 xGA 2.15 P xGD -0.77
  10. Mon 06/04 Molde FK A xG 1.50 xGA 1.03 xGD +0.47
  11. Sun 15/03 Aalesunds FK A xG 2.36 xGA 0.94 xGD +1.42

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Lillestrøm SK in Eliteserien

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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