Eredivisie odds and value 2026/2027
Estimates from a statistical model, published for reading rather than as betting advice. A positive value is a statement about an average over a long run, not about the match in front of you.
18+. Betting costs money over time; stake only what losing would not matter. If it has stopped being a choice, help is at [help service not yet named].
The qualified edges on the next Eredivisie matches: the outcomes where the model's probability, at the best price in the odds feed, clears the threshold under the same rule as the betting board. Every figure is defined above and computed from two inputs: the model probability and the best price.
What each figure is
- Model probability p
- The model's pre-kickoff probability for the selection, e.g. 13.2%.
- Fair odds 1 ÷ p
- The odds at which a bet on the model probability breaks even, e.g. 7.58.
- Best price price
- The highest decimal odds across the bookmakers in the feed at the last capture, e.g. 11.00.
- Implied probability 1 ÷ price
- What the best price says the chance is, the bookmaker's margin included, e.g. 9.1%.
- Value p × price − 1
- The expected return per unit staked at the best price if the model probability is right, e.g. +45.2%.
- Probability gap p − 1 ÷ price
- The model probability less the implied probability, in percentage points, e.g. +4.1 pp.
No qualified edge right now. Prices are checked through the day; this list changes as they move.
Only matches still to kick off are listed, and only qualified edges: a price inside its refresh allowance (6 hours within a day of kickoff, 48 hours further out), on a match with full data, in a market where the backtest measured model skill, with an edge from 5% up to but not including 40%. How the model works →