xgEdge

Expected goals

GNK Dinamo Zagreb expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

HNL · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

GNK Dinamo Zagreb's attacking and defensive expected goals in HNL 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

GNK Dinamo Zagreb xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
2.24 xG per match
#1/10
Attack (xG per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2.24
#2 HNK Rijeka 1.65
#3 HNK Hajduk Split 1.52
#4 NK Osijek 1.51
#5 NK Istra 1961 1.44
#6 NK Varaždin 1.41
#7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.05
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 0.93
#9 HNK Gorica 0.87
#10 NK Rudeš 0.60
League avg
1.31
Total
15.66 7 matches
Defence
0.91 xGA per match
#4/10
Defence (xGA per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 HNK Hajduk Split 0.74
#2 HNK Rijeka 0.77
#3 NK Varaždin 0.88
#4 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.91
#5 NK Istra 1961 1.26
#6 NK Osijek 1.28
#7 HNK Gorica 1.37
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 1.68
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.84
#10 NK Rudeš 2.20
League avg
1.31
Total
6.40 7 matches
xG difference
+1.32 xGD per match
#1/10
xG difference (xGD per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb +1.32
#2 HNK Rijeka +0.88
#3 HNK Hajduk Split +0.78
#4 NK Varaždin +0.53
#5 NK Osijek +0.23
#6 NK Istra 1961 +0.19
#7 HNK Gorica -0.50
#8 NK Slaven Belupo -0.76
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb -0.79
#10 NK Rudeš -1.61
League avg
0.00
Total
+9.26 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
2.23 xPts per match
#1/10
Expected points (xPts per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2.23
#2 HNK Rijeka 1.96
#3 HNK Hajduk Split 1.93
#4 NK Varaždin 1.80
#5 NK Osijek 1.53
#6 NK Istra 1961 1.45
#7 HNK Gorica 0.95
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 0.93
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.82
#10 NK Rudeš 0.45
League avg
1.39
Total
15.62 vs 16 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

GNK Dinamo Zagreb's underlying numbers are league-leading. They rank #1 for xG difference at +1.32 per match, driven by both the league's highest shot volume and the league's best chance quality. Their 17 goals are 1.34 above 15.66 xG, while 16 points are 0.38 above 15.62 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.31 xG from penalties
17 15.66 +1.34 scored 1.34 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
9 6.40 +2.60 conceded 2.60 more than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
16 15.62 +0.38 0.38 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

GNK Dinamo Zagreb are 1.34 goals above their xG after 7 matches.

Goals
17
xG
15.66
Gap
+1.34
Fri 31/07 Fri 14/08 Sat 22/08 Sat 29/08 Sat 05/09 Sat 12/09 Sun 20/09 -1 0 +1 +2 -0.64 -0.02 +0.88 +0.82 +0.12 +0.22 +1.34 -0.64 +0.62 +0.90 -0.06 -0.70 +0.10 +1.12 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
GNK Dinamo Zagreb: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Fri 31/07 NK Slaven Belupo 2 2.64 -0.64 -0.64
Fri 14/08 NK Rudeš 4 3.38 +0.62 -0.02
Sat 22/08 NK Varaždin 3 2.10 +0.90 +0.88
Sat 29/08 NK Istra 1961 2 2.06 -0.06 +0.82
Sat 05/09 HNK Gorica 1 1.70 -0.70 +0.12
Sat 12/09 NK Osijek 2 1.90 +0.10 +0.22
Sun 20/09 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3 1.88 +1.12 +1.34

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

GNK Dinamo Zagreb xG trend

Current form +0.96 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 6 of 7 matches. The only negative was against NK Osijek on Sat 12/09 (-0.99).

npxG · last 6
1.95
npxGA · last 6
0.99
-1 0 +1 +2 +3 +2.15 Fri 31/07 +2.23 Fri 14/08 +1.68 Sat 22/08 +1.07 Sat 29/08 +1.30 Sat 05/09 -0.99 Sat 12/09 +0.46 Sun 20/09 +1.13 season avg
GNK Dinamo Zagreb: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Fri 31/07 NK Slaven Belupo 2.64 0.49 +2.15 +2.15
Fri 14/08 NK Rudeš 2.62 0.39 +2.23 +2.19
Sat 22/08 NK Varaždin 2.10 0.42 +1.68 +2.02
Sat 29/08 NK Istra 1961 1.91 0.84 +1.07 +1.78
Sat 05/09 HNK Gorica 2.09 0.79 +1.30 +1.69
Sat 12/09 NK Osijek 1.11 2.10 -0.99 +1.24
Sun 20/09 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.88 1.42 +0.46 +1.13

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 2.05 npxG and 0.92 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 10 hardest of 10 in HNL
−0.21 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 9 hardest of 10 in HNL
−0.12 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.21 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 10 hardest of 10

  1. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Home −0.39
  2. NK Osijek Away +0.18
  3. HNK Gorica Home −0.34
  4. NK Istra 1961 Away −0.20
  5. NK Varaždin Home +0.13
  6. NK Rudeš Home −0.51
  7. NK Slaven Belupo Home −0.33

Last 5

−0.12 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 9 hardest of 10

  1. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Home −0.39
  2. NK Osijek Away +0.18
  3. HNK Gorica Home −0.34
  4. NK Istra 1961 Away −0.20
  5. NK Varaždin Home +0.13

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

GNK Dinamo Zagreb shots and chance quality

High volume, high quality. GNK Dinamo Zagreb take 19.6 shots a match (league 13.7) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.09), #1 in HNL for volume and #1 for quality. 66% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 14% of their npxG (league 21%).

Attack

Shot volume
19.6 shots per match
#1/10
Shot volume (shots per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 19.6
#2 NK Osijek 17.6
#3 HNK Rijeka 17.6
#4 HNK Hajduk Split 15.5
#5 NK Varaždin 14.1
#6 NK Istra 1961 13.0
#7 NK Slaven Belupo 11.5
=8 HNK Gorica 9.9
=8 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 9.9
#10 NK Rudeš 9.1
League avg
13.7
Total
137 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#1/10
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across HNL, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.10
#2 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.10
#3 NK Istra 1961 0.10
#4 HNK Rijeka 0.09
#5 NK Varaždin 0.09
#6 HNK Hajduk Split 0.09
#7 NK Osijek 0.08
#8 HNK Gorica 0.07
#9 NK Slaven Belupo 0.07
#10 NK Rudeš 0.06
League avg
0.09
Total
14.35 npxG from 137 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
9.1 shots per match
#3/10
Shots allowed (shots per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 HNK Hajduk Split 7.5
#2 HNK Rijeka 7.9
#3 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 9.1
#4 NK Varaždin 12.1
#5 NK Osijek 12.6
#6 NK Istra 1961 14.6
#7 NK Slaven Belupo 16.5
#8 HNK Gorica 16.6
#9 NK Rudeš 17.5
#10 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 20.8
League avg
13.7
Total
64 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#10/10
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across HNL, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 NK Varaždin 0.06
#2 HNK Rijeka 0.08
#3 NK Istra 1961 0.08
#4 HNK Gorica 0.08
#5 HNK Hajduk Split 0.09
#6 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.09
#7 NK Osijek 0.09
#8 NK Rudeš 0.10
#9 NK Slaven Belupo 0.10
#10 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.10
League avg
0.09
Total
6.45 npxGA from 64 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

66% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 91 of 137 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

61% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 39 of 64 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

86% open play · 14% set pieces

League avg 21% set pieces

From 2.1 of 14.4 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

86% open play · 14% set pieces

League avg 21% set pieces

From 0.9 of 6.4 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

GNK Dinamo Zagreb home and away xG

GNK Dinamo Zagreb per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away only 2 matches with xG
Matches 5 2
xG / match 2.34 1.98
xGA / match 0.70 1.45
xGD / match +1.64 +0.53
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.41 1.78

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every GNK Dinamo Zagreb match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Away this season

Matches
2
xG / match
1.98
xGA / match
1.44
xGD / match
+0.54
Points
1 of 6
  1. Sat 12/09 NK Osijek A xG 1.90 P xGA 2.05 xGD -0.15
  2. Sat 29/08 NK Istra 1961 A xG 2.06 xGA 0.84 xGD +1.22

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

GNK Dinamo Zagreb in HNL

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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