HNK Gorica's recorded results for 2026/2027, newest first, with the available xG behind each score. Compare outcomes with the chances created and conceded, then open a match for more detail.
Showing 8 of 8 matching results
8 played this season
8 available results · Last 10 requested
Reset filtersResults
- Wins – draws – losses (W–D–L)
- 1 win, 2 draws, 5 losses
5 pts 5–12 goals −7 GD
Chances
- Provider xG / xGA
- 6.96 – 10.96
- 0.87 – 1.37 per match
- xGD
- -4.00
- -0.50 per match
- xG record
- 1 with the chances, 2 with even chances, 5 against them
Comparable xG: 8 of 8 completed results.
Points vs xPts Model
5 pts 7.6 xPts
−2.6 vs xPts
Matched xPts: 8 of 8 selected results.
Model · How xPts works →Match points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before deductions or sanctions.
Points vs xPts uses only matches with available xPts on both sides of the comparison.
What the results say
Last 10 · All competitions · All venues
HNK Gorica's poor return follows chances that have gone against them at both ends. They out-created the opponent in 2 of 8 matches, for −4.00 xG difference overall on 6.96–10.96. Their points total of 5 sits 2.6 below the model's 7.6 xPts, so the chances have clearly outrun the results.
Points minus xPts, match by match
Over these 8 results HNK Gorica are 2.64 points below their xPts. The gap was widest at -5.05, against GNK Dinamo Zagreb on Sat 05/09.
- Points
- 5
- xPts
- 7.64
- Gap
- -2.64
- This match
- Match gap
- Running gap
| Date | Opponent | Points | xPts | Match gap | Running gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 01/08 | NK Osijek | 0 | 0.28 | -0.28 | -0.28 |
| Sat 08/08 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 0 | 1.68 | -1.68 | -1.96 |
| Sun 16/08 | HNK Hajduk Split | 0 | 1.41 | -1.41 | -3.37 |
| Sat 22/08 | NK Slaven Belupo | 0 | 1.20 | -1.20 | -4.57 |
| Mon 31/08 | HNK Rijeka | 1 | 0.84 | +0.16 | -4.41 |
| Sat 05/09 | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 0 | 0.64 | -0.64 | -5.05 |
| Mon 14/09 | NK Varaždin | 1 | 0.79 | +0.21 | -4.84 |
| Sat 19/09 | NK Istra 1961 | 3 | 0.80 | +2.20 | -2.64 |
Scores and xG
HNK Gorica first
-
Match analysis →
Why this label · NK Istra 1961, Sat 19/09
The team won despite recording less xG than its opponent. That contrast does not make the win impossible or establish why it happened.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 3
- Post-match model xPts
- 0.79
- Points minus xPts
- +2.21
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · NK Varaždin, Mon 14/09
The match was drawn although the team recorded less xG. The outcome was stronger than that chance difference suggests.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 1
- Post-match model xPts
- 0.79
- Points minus xPts
- +0.21
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · GNK Dinamo Zagreb, Sat 05/09
The team lost and recorded less xG than its opponent. The direction of the result aligns with the chance difference.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 0
- Post-match model xPts
- 0.64
- Points minus xPts
- -0.64
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · HNK Rijeka, Mon 31/08
The match was drawn although the team recorded less xG. The outcome was stronger than that chance difference suggests.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 1
- Post-match model xPts
- 0.84
- Points minus xPts
- +0.16
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · NK Slaven Belupo, Sat 22/08
The team lost, while the chance difference was approximately even. The outcome was weaker than that difference alone suggests.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 0
- Post-match model xPts
- 1.20
- Points minus xPts
- -1.20
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · HNK Hajduk Split, Sun 16/08
The team lost, while the chance difference was approximately even. The outcome was weaker than that difference alone suggests.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 0
- Post-match model xPts
- 1.41
- Points minus xPts
- -1.41
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, Sat 08/08
The team lost despite recording a positive xG difference. The outcome was weaker than that chance advantage suggests.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 0
- Post-match model xPts
- 1.68
- Points minus xPts
- -1.68
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · NK Osijek, Sat 01/08
The team lost and recorded less xG than its opponent. The direction of the result aligns with the chance difference.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 0
- Post-match model xPts
- 0.28
- Points minus xPts
- -0.28
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated →
Biggest overperformance
NK Istra 1961 1:0
· Away xG / xGA 0.61 – 1.21
- Goal difference
- +1
- xGD
- -0.60
- GD minus xGD
- +1.60
Among 8 comparable results.
Open match →
Biggest underperformance
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1:3
· Away xG / xGA 1.54 – 1.13
- Goal difference
- -2
- xGD
- +0.41
- GD minus xGD
- -2.41
Among 8 comparable results.
Open match →
Reading these results
xG is the provider's estimate of chances created; xGA is the opponent's xG. xGD is the difference. Labels compare the recorded outcome with those chances; they are interpretations, not judgments about fairness.
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
How each figure on this page is read
Every xG bar is drawn on one fixed scale: full width is 7.20 xG, the same on every card and in every window, so two cards can be compared by eye. A rarer match above that is capped with a hatched end, and the figure beside the bar still gives its value.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
Goal difference minus xGD says how far a scoreline finished from the chances behind it: a 4:2 won off level chances ran nearly two goals ahead of them. The two callouts under the list name the match that ran furthest each way, and a direction with no result a full goal clear of the chances gets no card rather than a card built from a rounding.
Windows count back from the most recent recorded match, and only matches attached to this club record are included. Home and away mean the provider-designated side, not a verified physical venue. Scores describe recorded play, not shootout advancement. Unverified periods receive no chance comparison.