NK Osijek's recorded results for 2026/2027, newest first, with the available xG behind each score. Compare outcomes with the chances created and conceded, then open a match for more detail.
Results
- Wins – draws – losses (W–D–L)
- 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses
7 pts 8–10 goals −2 GD
Chances
- Provider xG / xGA
- 4.92 – 7.91
- 0.98 – 1.58 per match
- xGD
- -2.99
- -0.60 per match
- xG record
- 1 with the chances, 2 with even chances, 2 against them
Comparable xG: 5 of 5 completed results.
Points vs xPts Model
7 pts 4.9 xPts
+2.1 vs xPts
Matched xPts: 5 of 5 selected results.
Model · How xPts works →Match points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before deductions or sanctions.
Points vs xPts uses only matches with available xPts on both sides of the comparison.
What the results say
Last 5 · All competitions · All venues
NK Osijek's mixed record runs ahead of the chances they created and conceded. They out-created the opponent in 2 of 5 matches, for −2.99 xG difference overall on 4.92–7.91. Their points total of 7 sits 2.1 above the model's 4.9 xPts, so the results have clearly outrun the chances.
Points minus xPts, match by match
Over these 5 results NK Osijek are 2.05 points above their xPts. The gap was widest at +2.10, against GNK Dinamo Zagreb on Sat 12/09.
- Points
- 7
- xPts
- 4.95
- Gap
- +2.05
- This match
- Match gap
- Running gap
| Date | Opponent | Points | xPts | Match gap | Running gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 23/08 | HNK Hajduk Split | 0 | 0.46 | -0.46 | -0.46 |
| Sun 30/08 | NK Slaven Belupo | 3 | 1.83 | +1.17 | +0.71 |
| Sat 05/09 | HNK Rijeka | 0 | 0.12 | -0.12 | +0.59 |
| Sat 12/09 | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1.49 | +1.51 | +2.10 |
| Sat 19/09 | NK Varaždin | 1 | 1.05 | -0.05 | +2.05 |
Scores and xG
NK Osijek first
-
Match analysis →
Why this label · NK Varaždin, Sat 19/09
The match was drawn and the chance difference was approximately even. The two readings broadly align.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 1
- Post-match model xPts
- 1.05
- Points minus xPts
- -0.05
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · GNK Dinamo Zagreb, Sat 12/09
The team won, while the chance difference was approximately even. The outcome was stronger than that difference alone suggests.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 3
- Post-match model xPts
- 1.49
- Points minus xPts
- +1.51
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · HNK Rijeka, Sat 05/09
The team lost and recorded less xG than its opponent. The direction of the result aligns with the chance difference.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 0
- Post-match model xPts
- 0.12
- Points minus xPts
- -0.12
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · NK Slaven Belupo, Sun 30/08
The team won and had a positive xG difference. The chances support the direction of the result, without making a judgment about fairness.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 3
- Post-match model xPts
- 1.83
- Points minus xPts
- +1.17
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · HNK Hajduk Split, Sun 23/08
The team lost and recorded less xG than its opponent. The direction of the result aligns with the chance difference.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 0
- Post-match model xPts
- 0.46
- Points minus xPts
- -0.46
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated →
Biggest overperformance
NK Slaven Belupo 3:0
· Home xG / xGA 1.43 – 0.88
- Goal difference
- +3
- xGD
- +0.55
- GD minus xGD
- +2.45
Among 5 comparable results.
Open match →
Biggest underperformance
HNK Hajduk Split 0:4
· Away xG / xGA 0.50 – 1.66
- Goal difference
- -4
- xGD
- -1.16
- GD minus xGD
- -2.84
Among 5 comparable results.
Open match →
Reading these results
xG is the provider's estimate of chances created; xGA is the opponent's xG. xGD is the difference. Labels compare the recorded outcome with those chances; they are interpretations, not judgments about fairness.
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
How each figure on this page is read
Every xG bar is drawn on one fixed scale: full width is 7.20 xG, the same on every card and in every window, so two cards can be compared by eye. A rarer match above that is capped with a hatched end, and the figure beside the bar still gives its value.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
Goal difference minus xGD says how far a scoreline finished from the chances behind it: a 4:2 won off level chances ran nearly two goals ahead of them. The two callouts under the list name the match that ran furthest each way, and a direction with no result a full goal clear of the chances gets no card rather than a card built from a rounding.
Windows count back from the most recent recorded match, and only matches attached to this club record are included. Home and away mean the provider-designated side, not a verified physical venue. Scores describe recorded play, not shootout advancement. Unverified periods receive no chance comparison.