Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 18:30
Full timeClub Brugge KV 3:0 KRC Genk
Club Brugge KV were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was KRC Genk's attack: 1.96 xG against 1.37 projected (+0.59).
Goals
- 15' Carlos Forbs Club Brugge KV · 0.04 xG chance 1–0
- 58' Han-Beom Lee Club Brugge KV · 0.13 xG chance 2–0
- 63' Brandon Mechele Club Brugge KV · 0.25 xG chance 3–0
The model against the result
- Club Brugge KV
- 48% What happened
- Draw
- 26%
- KRC Genk
- 25%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
KRC Genk produced 0.59 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 23
- 19
- On target
- 6
- 2
- Inside the box
- 17
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 1.13
- 1.76
- Set-piece xG
- 0.62
- 0.20
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.77 for Club Brugge KV.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
42 shots · 3.71 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Club Brugge KV
- KRC Genk
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.17 xG created 1.08 xGA
- W 3.85 created, 0.86 conceded against KV Kortrijk
- W 2.92 created, 0.72 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- W 1.83 created, 0.76 conceded against Cercle Brugge
- L 0.65 created, 1.38 conceded against KAA Gent
- W 0.80 created, 0.65 conceded against Lommel SK
- W 2.94 created, 2.09 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
1.75 xG created 0.90 xGA
- L 0.54 created, 0.51 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
- W 4.24 created, 0.85 conceded against KVC Westerlo
- D 1.30 created, 1.86 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
- W 3.06 created, 0.61 conceded against SK Beveren
- D 0.40 created, 0.70 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
- D 0.94 created, 0.89 conceded against KAA Gent
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged0 won8 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| KRC Genk to win | 6.00 | +52.3% | Lost |
| KRC Genk 2+ goals | 3.25 | +32.2% | Lost |
| Club Brugge KV not to score | 9.00 | +17.7% | Lost |
| Club Brugge KV at most 1 goal | 2.75 | +15.2% | Lost |
| KRC Genk to score | 1.44 | +11.6% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.20 | +9.8% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | +7.7% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.88 | +0.4% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV | 48.5% | 63.0% | −14.6 pp | 2.06 |
| Draw | 26.2% | 21.8% | +4.4 pp | 3.82 |
| KRC Genk | 25.4% | 15.2% | +10.2 pp | 3.94 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV to score | 86.9% | 89.4% | −2.4 pp | 1.15 |
| Club Brugge KV not to score | 13.1% | 10.6% | +2.4 pp | 7.64 |
| KRC Genk to score | 77.3% | 64.5% | +12.8 pp | 1.29 |
| KRC Genk not to score | 22.7% | 35.5% | −12.8 pp | 4.40 |
| Both teams to score | 68.5% | 58.9% | +9.7 pp | 1.46 |
| Both teams not to score | 31.5% | 41.1% | −9.7 pp | 3.18 |
| Club Brugge KV 2+ goals | 58.1% | 66.3% | −8.2 pp | 1.72 |
| Club Brugge KV at most 1 goal | 41.9% | 33.7% | +8.2 pp | 2.39 |
| KRC Genk 2+ goals | 40.7% | 29.1% | +11.6 pp | 2.46 |
| KRC Genk at most 1 goal | 59.3% | 70.9% | −11.6 pp | 1.69 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.1% | 85.4% | +1.7 pp | 1.15 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12.9% | 14.6% | −1.7 pp | 7.73 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.1% | 67.3% | −2.2 pp | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.9% | 32.7% | +2.2 pp | 2.86 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Club Brugge KV sample
- 20 matches
- KRC Genk sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.