Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 18:30
Full timeKAA Gent 4:0 RSC Anderlecht
KAA Gent were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was KAA Gent's attack: 1.89 xG against 1.26 projected (+0.63). RSC Anderlecht produced 1.54 xG against 1.15 projected (+0.39).
Goals
- 14' Abdelkahar Kadri KAA Gent · 0.39 xG chance 1–0
- 73' Ibrahima Cisse KAA Gent · 0.70 xG chance 2–0
- 77' Momodou Sonko KAA Gent · 0.08 xG chance 3–0
- 81' Matties Volckaert KAA Gent · 0.50 xG chance 4–0
The model against the result
- KAA Gent
- 37% What happened
- Draw
- 32%
- RSC Anderlecht
- 31%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
KAA Gent produced 0.63 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 8
- 18
- On target
- 7
- 5
- Inside the box
- 6
- 13
- xG per shot
- 0.23
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 1.80
- 1.00
- Set-piece xG
- 0.01
- 0.52
- Penalties
- —
- —
KAA Gent's shots add up to 1.81 xG and RSC Anderlecht's to 1.52; the published figures are 1.89 and 1.54.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
26 shots · 3.33 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- KAA Gent
- RSC Anderlecht
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.21 xG created 0.74 xGA
- W 1.38 created, 0.65 conceded against Club Brugge KV
- W 0.98 created, 0.52 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- W 1.22 created, 0.49 conceded against Cercle Brugge
- D 0.89 created, 0.94 conceded against KRC Genk
- W 1.30 created, 1.11 conceded against Standard Liège
- W 1.50 created, 0.75 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
1.31 xG created 0.89 xGA
- L 1.34 created, 1.60 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- W 1.50 created, 0.46 conceded against KV Kortrijk
- D 0.70 created, 0.40 conceded against KRC Genk
- W 0.91 created, 1.23 conceded against KV Mechelen
- W 2.59 created, 0.99 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
- W 0.83 created, 0.66 conceded against Cercle Brugge
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 qualified edges flagged0 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.30 | +6.6% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.80 | +0.4% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAA Gent | 36.7% | 38.7% | −2.0 pp | 2.72 |
| Draw | 32.3% | 27.9% | +4.4 pp | 3.10 |
| RSC Anderlecht | 31.0% | 33.4% | −2.5 pp | 3.23 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAA Gent to score | 74.7% | 73.1% | +1.5 pp | 1.34 |
| KAA Gent not to score | 25.4% | 26.9% | −1.5 pp | 3.94 |
| RSC Anderlecht to score | 71.2% | 70.9% | +0.3 pp | 1.41 |
| RSC Anderlecht not to score | 28.8% | 29.1% | −0.3 pp | 3.47 |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | 52.0% | +3.0 pp | 1.82 |
| Both teams not to score | 45.0% | 48.0% | −3.0 pp | 2.22 |
| KAA Gent 2+ goals | 36.7% | 39.2% | −2.5 pp | 2.72 |
| KAA Gent at most 1 goal | 63.3% | 60.8% | +2.5 pp | 1.58 |
| RSC Anderlecht 2+ goals | 32.4% | 35.5% | −3.1 pp | 3.09 |
| RSC Anderlecht at most 1 goal | 67.6% | 64.5% | +3.1 pp | 1.48 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.8% | 72.3% | +1.5 pp | 1.35 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26.2% | 27.7% | −1.5 pp | 3.82 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.2% | 47.4% | −3.1 pp | 2.26 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.8% | 52.6% | +3.1 pp | 1.79 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- KAA Gent sample
- 20 matches
- RSC Anderlecht sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 29 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.