Friday, 09/10/2026 at 18:00
5d 18h to kick-offStandard Liège – RC Sporting Charleroi
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Standard Liège
- 30%
- Draw
- 30%
- RC Sporting Charleroi
- 40%
| Standard Liège | Draw | RC Sporting Charleroi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.33 | 3.37 | 2.48 |
- Total goals
- 2.77
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans RC Sporting Charleroi
40% RC Sporting Charleroi to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 14th
- RC Sporting Charleroi attack v Standard Liège defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 11th
- RC Sporting Charleroi defence v Standard Liège attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.69 vs +0.11
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.28 – 1.49
- Standard Liège v RC Sporting Charleroi
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Standard Liège | RC Sporting Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.79 · 5th | (better) 1.91 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.53 · 10th | (better) 1.06 · 4th |
| xGD / match | +0.25 · 7th | (better) +0.86 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.48 · 7th | (better) 2.02 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.11 | (better) +0.69 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- RC Sporting Charleroi clean sheet
- 25%
- RC Sporting Charleroi 2+ goals
- 45%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.8%
- 1:2
- 10.3%
- 2:1
- 8.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Standard Liège sample
- 20 matches
- RC Sporting Charleroi sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Standard Liège
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · RC Sporting Charleroi
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.