Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 21:00
14d 19h to kick-offReal Madrid – Sevilla
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Real Madrid
- 58%
- Draw
- 27%
- Sevilla
- 15%
| Real Madrid | Draw | Sevilla | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.72 | 3.64 | 6.88 |
- Total goals
- 2.51
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score
- 51%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Real Madrid
58% Real Madrid to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 3rd
- Real Madrid attack v Sevilla defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 17th
- Real Madrid defence v Sevilla attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.53 vs -0.42
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.70 – 0.81
- Real Madrid v Sevilla
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Real Madrid | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.64 · 2nd | 0.99 · 16th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.09 · 2nd | 1.30 · 9th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.55 · 2nd | -0.31 · 11th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.27 · 2nd | 1.30 · 9th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.53 | -0.42 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- Real Madrid clean sheet
- 41%
- Real Madrid 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score: no
- 49%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.3%
- 2:0
- 12.0%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Real Madrid sample
- 20 matches
- Sevilla sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Real Madrid
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Sevilla
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.