Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 21:00
6d 19h to kick-offReal Madrid – Villarreal
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Real Madrid
- 55%
- Draw
- 26%
- Villarreal
- 20%
| Real Madrid | Draw | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.82 | 3.91 | 5.10 |
- Total goals
- 3.08
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 8 outcomes.
-
Real Madrid
- Model
- 54.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 70.9%
- Probability gap
- −16.1 pp
- Edge
- −28.7%
- Fair odds
- 1.82
- Market odds
- 1.30 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 1.91
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.4%
-
Draw
- Model
- 25.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 16.8%
- Probability gap
- +8.8 pp
- Edge
- +40.5%
- Fair odds
- 3.91
- Market odds
- 5.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.11
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.4%
-
Villarreal
- Model
- 19.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 12.3%
- Probability gap
- +7.3 pp
- Edge
- +47.1%
- Fair odds
- 5.10
- Market odds
- 7.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 5.35
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.4%
Outcomes with value
Real Madrid at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Real Madrid not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Villarreal to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Villarreal 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Villarreal to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Real Madrid at most 1 goal
Model 40.4% vs. bookmaker 23.4%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Real Madrid
55% Real Madrid to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 8th
- Real Madrid attack v Villarreal defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 4th
- Real Madrid defence v Villarreal attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.53 vs +1.51
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.93 – 1.15
- Real Madrid v Villarreal
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Real Madrid | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.64 · 2nd | 2.38 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.09 · 2nd | 1.25 · 6th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.55 · 2nd | +1.12 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.27 · 2nd | 1.92 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.53 | +1.51 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Real Madrid clean sheet
- 29%
- Real Madrid 2+ goals
- 60%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.3%
- 2:1
- 11.4%
- 2:0
- 8.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Real Madrid sample
- 20 matches
- Villarreal sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Real Madrid
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Villarreal
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.