Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 16:30
6d 14h to kick-offCasa Pia – Santa Clara
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Casa Pia
- 23%
- Draw
- 36%
- Santa Clara
- 41%
| Casa Pia | Draw | Santa Clara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.27 | 2.80 | 2.45 |
- Total goals
- 1.93
- Over 2.5 goals
- 30%
- Both teams to score
- 43%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 4 outcomes.
-
Casa Pia
- Model
- 23.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 20.7%
- Probability gap
- +2.8 pp
- Edge
- +5.5%
- Fair odds
- 4.27
- Market odds
- 4.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.48
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.5%
-
Draw
- Model
- 35.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 29.1%
- Probability gap
- +6.6 pp
- Edge
- +14.3%
- Fair odds
- 2.80
- Market odds
- 3.20 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.94
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.5%
-
Santa Clara
- Model
- 40.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 50.3%
- Probability gap
- −9.4 pp
- Edge
- −24.4%
- Fair odds
- 2.45
- Market odds
- 1.85 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.57
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.5%
Outcomes with value
Casa Pia to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Casa Pia to win
Model 23.4% vs. bookmaker 20.7%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model disagrees with the market
The leading outcome: Casa Pia to win
What the model's reading is made of
- The model makes Casa Pia to win 23.4%. The market, with the bookmaker's margin taken out, makes it 20.7%. The gap between the two is 2.8%.
- Liga Portugal carries more home advantage than most: the baselines the fit reads put a home side's expected goals at 1.24 times an away side's, against a median of 1.22 across the competitions the model fits.
These are the parts of the model's own number, not an account of the bookmaker's. The fit reads two ratings a side, the competition's average home and away expected goals, the window it looks back over and how many matches it found in it — and nothing else is a reason this page can give.
What the model did not read
| Reading | Casa Pia | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| Form — xG difference, the last 6 matches | -0.91 | +0.74 |
| Goals scored minus expected | -3.26 | +1.53 |
| Points won minus expected | -2.40 | +1.46 |
| npxG per shot | 0.07 | 0.10 |
All of this is in the database and none of it entered the fit. A reading here may point the other way from every line above it — where it does, both are true, and only one of them is in the model.
Why the model leans Santa Clara
41% Santa Clara to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 13th
- Santa Clara attack v Casa Pia defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 16th
- Santa Clara defence v Casa Pia attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.74 vs -0.91
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.81 – 1.12
- Casa Pia v Santa Clara
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Casa Pia | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.89 · 15th | (better) 1.35 · 6th |
| xGA / match | 1.77 · 16th | (better) 0.69 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | -0.87 · 16th | (better) +0.67 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 0.91 · 15th | (better) 1.93 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.91 | (better) +0.74 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 46% of the model's distribution.
- Santa Clara clean sheet
- 41%
- Santa Clara 2+ goals
- 31%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 70%
- Both teams to score: no
- 57%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.8%
- 0:0
- 14.3%
- 0:1
- 14.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Casa Pia sample
- 20 matches
- Santa Clara sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Casa Pia
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Santa Clara
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.