Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 19:00
Full timeFC Arouca 1:2 Santa Clara
Santa Clara were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was FC Arouca's attack: 0.72 xG against 1.00 projected (−0.28).
Goals
- 22' Gonçalo Paciência Santa Clara · 0.14 xG chance 0–1
- 36' José Tavares Santa Clara · 0.02 xG chance 0–2
- 46' Ivan Barbero FC Arouca · 0.05 xG chance 1–2
The model against the result
- FC Arouca
- 29%
- Draw
- 34%
- Santa Clara
- 37% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Arouca produced 0.28 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 10
- 12
- On target
- 4
- 5
- Inside the box
- 5
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 0.66
- 1.06
- Set-piece xG
- 0.07
- 0.13
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.73 for FC Arouca and 1.16 for Santa Clara.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
22 shots · 1.92 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FC Arouca
- Santa Clara
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.25 xG created 1.30 xGA
1.29 xG created 0.74 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged2 won3 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca not to score | 3.25 | +9.9% | Lost |
| Santa Clara to win | 2.88 | +6.3% | Won |
| FC Arouca at most 1 goal | 1.44 | +6.1% | Won |
| Draw | 3.10 | +5.7% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.62 | +1.9% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca | 28.9% | 36.2% | −7.3 pp | 3.46 |
| Draw | 34.1% | 30.7% | +3.4 pp | 2.93 |
| Santa Clara | 37.0% | 33.1% | +3.9 pp | 2.70 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca to score | 66.2% | 70.9% | −4.7 pp | 1.51 |
| FC Arouca not to score | 33.8% | 29.1% | +4.7 pp | 2.96 |
| Santa Clara to score | 71.2% | 66.3% | +5.0 pp | 1.40 |
| Santa Clara not to score | 28.8% | 33.7% | −5.0 pp | 3.48 |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 48.0% | +1.1 pp | 2.03 |
| Both teams not to score | 50.9% | 52.0% | −1.1 pp | 1.97 |
| FC Arouca 2+ goals | 26.5% | 35.5% | −9.0 pp | 3.77 |
| FC Arouca at most 1 goal | 73.5% | 64.5% | +9.0 pp | 1.36 |
| Santa Clara 2+ goals | 32.5% | 31.3% | +1.2 pp | 3.08 |
| Santa Clara at most 1 goal | 67.5% | 68.7% | −1.2 pp | 1.48 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.8% | 68.7% | −1.0 pp | 1.48 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 32.2% | 31.3% | +1.0 pp | 3.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.9% | 41.8% | −4.9 pp | 2.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 63.1% | 58.2% | +4.9 pp | 1.58 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Arouca sample
- 20 matches
- Santa Clara sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.