Auxerre – Lille prediction, 27 February 2027 · Ligue 1

Saturday, 27/02/2027

Match preview · Ligue 1

Auxerre 10th in Ligue 1 Home 1.03 projected goals

Lille 4th in Ligue 1 Away 1.16 projected goals

Model updated 6 October, 15:30 Odds not yet available

What the model expects

expected goals

1.03 1.16

Auxerre Lille

Auxerre: 29%
Draw: 34%
Lille: 37%

The odds each result is fair at by the model's chance of it, with no margin in it
	Auxerre	Draw	Lille
Fair odds	3.39	2.95	2.73

Total goals: 2.20
Over 2.5 goals: 38%
Both teams to score: 50%

Data coverage · full

Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Model vs market

Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.

The model's case

Why the model leans Lille

37% Lille to win

Attack: 12th vs 9th; Lille attack v Auxerre defence
Defence: 2nd vs 17th; Lille defence v Auxerre attack
Recent xG form: -0.11 vs -0.73; xGD per match, last 6
Projected goals: 1.03 – 1.16; Auxerre v Lille

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Auxerre and Lille compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Auxerre	Lille
xG / match	(better) 1.41 · 11th	1.39 · 14th
xGA / match	2.05 · 16th	(better) 1.75 · joint 10th
xGD / match	-0.63 · 15th	(better) -0.36 · 12th
xPts / match	1.18 · 13th	(better) 1.23 · 10th
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.73	(better) -0.11

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Auxerre and Lille compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Auxerre	Lille
xG / match	(better) 1.41 · 11th	1.39 · 14th
npxG / match	1.05	(better) 1.35
Shots / match	12.0 · 13th	(better) 12.8 · 12th
npxG / shot	0.09 · 16th	(better) 0.11 · 11th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Auxerre and Lille compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Auxerre	Lille
xGA / match	2.05 · 16th	(better) 1.75 · joint 10th
Shots faced / match	(better) 13.6 · 8th	16.0 · 14th
npxGA / shot	0.13 · 15th	(better) 0.11 · 11th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Auxerre and Lille compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Auxerre	Lille
Last 6 xG / match	1.27	(better) 1.45
Last 6 xGA / match	1.99	(better) 1.55
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.73	(better) -0.11

Ratings fitted over each club's last 20 matches, recent ones weighted more and adjusted for the opponent.

Auxerre attack → Lille defence

Edge Lille

Auxerre attack: 0.83 · 17th
Lille defence: 0.84 · 2nd

Lille attack → Auxerre defence

Evenly matched

Lille attack: 0.94 · 12th
Auxerre defence: 1.00 · 9th

The season aggregate places Auxerre 11th of 18; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them lower, at 17th of 18. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

The season aggregate places Lille tied 10th of 18; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them higher, at 2nd of 18. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

The season aggregate places Auxerre 16th of 18; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them higher, at 9th of 18. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

One is the competition's average. An attack above it creates more than an average side does; a defence below it concedes less. Both are fitted over recent matches and adjusted for who the opponent was.

The scorelines behind the model's numbers

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 39% of the model's distribution.

Lille clean sheet: 33%
Lille 2+ goals: 33%
Under 2.5 goals: 62%
Both teams to score: no: 50%

Most likely scorelines

1:1: 17.3%
0:0: 11.3%
0:1: 10.7%

Value calculator

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How value is calculated

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Match result

Auxerre to win

29.5% 3.39 —

Draw

33.9% 2.95 —

Lille to win

36.6% 2.73 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

68.7% 1.45 —

Under 1.5 goals

31.3% 3.20 —

Over 2.5 goals

38.0% 2.63 —

Under 2.5 goals

62.0% 1.61 —

Both teams to score

50.1% 2.00 —

Both teams not to score

49.9% 2.00 —

Team goals — Auxerre

Auxerre to score

67.2% 1.49 —

Auxerre not to score

32.8% 3.05 —

Auxerre 2+ goals

27.6% 3.63 —

Auxerre at most 1 goal

72.4% 1.38 —

Team goals — Lille

Lille to score

71.6% 1.40 —

Lille not to score

28.4% 3.52 —

Lille 2+ goals

32.9% 3.04 —

Lille at most 1 goal

67.1% 1.49 —

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Auxerre sample: 20 matches
Lille sample: 20 matches
Home xG sample · Auxerre: 3 matches
Away xG sample · Lille: 3 matches
Computed: Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 15:30

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Auxerre

1.27 xG created 1.99 xGA

W 0.54 created, 1.72 conceded against Lille
L 1.84 created, 4.41 conceded against RC Lens
L 1.81 created, 1.55 conceded against Angers
L 0.71 created, 2.85 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
W 1.74 created, 1.08 conceded against Nice
W 0.96 created, 0.34 conceded against Stade Brestois

Lille

1.45 xG created 1.55 xGA

L 1.72 created, 0.54 conceded against Auxerre
W 1.24 created, 1.99 conceded against Angers
D 1.27 created, 1.44 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
W 1.21 created, 3.46 conceded against Toulouse
W 1.65 created, 0.38 conceded against Troyes
L 1.58 created, 1.50 conceded against Nice

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost