Auxerre – Olympique de Marseille prediction, 29 November 2026 · Ligue 1

Sunday, 29/11/2026

Match preview · Ligue 1

Auxerre 10th in Ligue 1 Home 1.39 projected goals

Olympique de Marseille 17th in Ligue 1 Away 1.40 projected goals

Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available

What the model expects

expected goals

1.39 1.40

Auxerre Olympique de Marseille

Auxerre: 35%
Draw: 30%
Olympique de Marseille: 35%

The odds each result is fair at by the model's chance of it, with no margin in it
	Auxerre	Draw	Olympique de Marseille
Fair odds	2.88	3.35	2.83

Total goals: 2.79
Over 2.5 goals: 55%
Both teams to score: 63%

Data coverage · full

Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Model vs market

Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.

The model's case

Why the model can't separate them

35% Olympique de Marseille to win

Attack: 3rd vs 9th; Olympique de Marseille attack v Auxerre defence
Defence: 17th vs 17th; Olympique de Marseille defence v Auxerre attack
Recent xG form: -0.52 vs -0.73; xGD per match, last 6
Projected goals: 1.39 – 1.40; Auxerre v Olympique de Marseille

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Auxerre and Olympique de Marseille compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Auxerre	Olympique de Marseille
xG / match	1.41 · 11th	(better) 1.56 · 10th
xGA / match	(better) 2.05 · 16th	2.28 · 18th
xGD / match	(better) -0.63 · 15th	-0.72 · 17th
xPts / match	(better) 1.18 · 13th	1.09 · 14th
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.73	(better) -0.53

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Auxerre and Olympique de Marseille compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Auxerre	Olympique de Marseille
xG / match	1.41 · 11th	(better) 1.56 · 10th
npxG / match	1.05	(better) 1.31
Shots / match	12.0 · 13th	(better) 13.2 · joint 10th
npxG / shot	0.09 · 16th	(better) 0.10 · 12th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Auxerre and Olympique de Marseille compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Auxerre	Olympique de Marseille
xGA / match	(better) 2.05 · 16th	2.28 · 18th
Shots faced / match	(better) 13.6 · 8th	17.0 · 17th
npxGA / shot	0.13 · 15th	(better) 0.12 · 14th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Auxerre and Olympique de Marseille compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Auxerre	Olympique de Marseille
Last 6 xG / match	1.27	(better) 1.79
Last 6 xGA / match	(better) 1.99	2.32
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.73	(better) -0.53

Ratings fitted over each club's last 20 matches, recent ones weighted more and adjusted for the opponent.

Auxerre attack → Olympique de Marseille defence

Evenly matched

Auxerre attack: 0.83 · 17th
Olympique de Marseille defence: 1.14 · 17th

Olympique de Marseille attack → Auxerre defence

Evenly matched

Olympique de Marseille attack: 1.13 · 3rd
Auxerre defence: 1.00 · 9th

The season aggregate places Auxerre 11th of 18; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them lower, at 17th of 18. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

The season aggregate places Olympique de Marseille 10th of 18; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them higher, at 3rd of 18. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

The season aggregate places Auxerre 16th of 18; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them higher, at 9th of 18. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

One is the competition's average. An attack above it creates more than an average side does; a defence below it concedes less. Both are fitted over recent matches and adjusted for who the opponent was.

The scorelines behind the model's numbers

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.

Olympique de Marseille clean sheet: 22%
Olympique de Marseille 2+ goals: 42%
Under 2.5 goals: 45%
Both teams to score: no: 37%

Most likely scorelines

1:1: 14.8%
1:2: 9.7%
2:1: 9.6%

Value calculator

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How value is calculated

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Match result

Auxerre to win

34.8% 2.88 —

Draw

29.8% 3.35 —

Olympique de Marseille to win

35.4% 2.83 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

81.0% 1.23 —

Under 1.5 goals

19.0% 5.27 —

Over 2.5 goals

54.5% 1.83 —

Under 2.5 goals

45.5% 2.20 —

Both teams to score

62.7% 1.60 —

Both teams not to score

37.3% 2.68 —

Team goals — Auxerre

Auxerre to score

77.9% 1.28 —

Auxerre not to score

22.1% 4.53 —

Auxerre 2+ goals

41.6% 2.40 —

Auxerre at most 1 goal

58.4% 1.71 —

Team goals — Olympique de Marseille

Olympique de Marseille to score

78.2% 1.28 —

Olympique de Marseille not to score

21.8% 4.60 —

Olympique de Marseille 2+ goals

42.1% 2.38 —

Olympique de Marseille at most 1 goal

57.9% 1.73 —

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Auxerre sample: 20 matches
Olympique de Marseille sample: 20 matches
Home xG sample · Auxerre: 3 matches
Away xG sample · Olympique de Marseille: 2 matches
Computed: Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Auxerre

1.27 xG created 1.99 xGA

W 0.54 created, 1.72 conceded against Lille
L 1.84 created, 4.41 conceded against RC Lens
L 1.81 created, 1.55 conceded against Angers
L 0.71 created, 2.85 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
W 1.74 created, 1.08 conceded against Nice
W 0.96 created, 0.34 conceded against Stade Brestois

Olympique de Marseille

1.79 xG created 2.32 xGA

W 2.92 created, 2.49 conceded against Stade Rennais
W 1.86 created, 0.18 conceded against RC Strasbourg
L 1.40 created, 1.72 conceded against AS Monaco
L 1.42 created, 3.29 conceded against Paris FC
L 1.34 created, 1.88 conceded against Stade Rennais
L 1.80 created, 4.33 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost