Auxerre – RC Lens prediction, 3 April 2027 · Ligue 1

Saturday, 03/04/2027

Match preview · Ligue 1

Auxerre 10th in Ligue 1 Home 1.20 projected goals

RC Lens 15th in Ligue 1 Away 1.62 projected goals

Model updated 6 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available

What the model expects

expected goals

1.20 1.62

Auxerre RC Lens

Auxerre: 26%
Draw: 29%
RC Lens: 46%

The odds each result is fair at by the model's chance of it, with no margin in it
	Auxerre	Draw	RC Lens
Fair odds	3.92	3.47	2.19

Total goals: 2.82
Over 2.5 goals: 55%
Both teams to score: 62%

Data coverage · full

Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Model vs market

Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.

The model's case

Why the model leans RC Lens

46% RC Lens to win

Attack: 2nd vs 9th; RC Lens attack v Auxerre defence
Defence: 8th vs 17th; RC Lens defence v Auxerre attack
Recent xG form: +0.23 vs -0.73; xGD per match, last 6
Projected goals: 1.20 – 1.62; Auxerre v RC Lens

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Auxerre and RC Lens compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Auxerre	RC Lens
xG / match	1.41 · 11th	(better) 2.27 · 2nd
xGA / match	2.05 · 16th	(better) 1.92 · 13th
xGD / match	-0.63 · 15th	(better) +0.35 · 6th
xPts / match	1.18 · 13th	(better) 1.49 · 6th
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.73	(better) +0.23

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Auxerre and RC Lens compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Auxerre	RC Lens
xG / match	1.41 · 11th	(better) 2.27 · 2nd
npxG / match	1.05	(better) 1.67
Shots / match	12.0 · 13th	(better) 14.8 · joint 6th
npxG / shot	0.09 · 16th	(better) 0.11 · 6th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Auxerre and RC Lens compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Auxerre	RC Lens
xGA / match	2.05 · 16th	(better) 1.92 · 13th
Shots faced / match	13.6 · 8th	(better) 11.2 · joint 3rd
npxGA / shot	(better) 0.13 · 15th	0.16 · 18th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Auxerre and RC Lens compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Auxerre	RC Lens
Last 6 xG / match	1.27	(better) 2.15
Last 6 xGA / match	1.99	(better) 1.92
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.73	(better) +0.23

Ratings fitted over each club's last 20 matches, recent ones weighted more and adjusted for the opponent.

Auxerre attack → RC Lens defence

Edge RC Lens

Auxerre attack: 0.83 · 17th
RC Lens defence: 0.98 · 8th

RC Lens attack → Auxerre defence

Edge RC Lens

RC Lens attack: 1.31 · 2nd
Auxerre defence: 1.00 · 9th

The season aggregate places Auxerre 11th of 18; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them lower, at 17th of 18. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

The season aggregate places RC Lens 13th of 18; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them higher, at 8th of 18. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

The season aggregate places Auxerre 16th of 18; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them higher, at 9th of 18. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

One is the competition's average. An attack above it creates more than an average side does; a defence below it concedes less. Both are fitted over recent matches and adjusted for who the opponent was.

The scorelines behind the model's numbers

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.

RC Lens clean sheet: 27%
RC Lens 2+ goals: 50%
Under 2.5 goals: 45%
Both teams to score: no: 38%

Most likely scorelines

1:1: 14.3%
1:2: 10.9%
2:1: 7.8%

Value calculator

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How value is calculated

Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

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Match result

Auxerre to win

25.5% 3.92 —

Draw

28.8% 3.47 —

RC Lens to win

45.7% 2.19 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

81.2% 1.23 —

Under 1.5 goals

18.8% 5.33 —

Over 2.5 goals

55.0% 1.82 —

Under 2.5 goals

45.0% 2.22 —

Both teams to score

61.7% 1.62 —

Both teams not to score

38.3% 2.61 —

Team goals — Auxerre

Auxerre to score

72.7% 1.38 —

Auxerre not to score

27.3% 3.66 —

Auxerre 2+ goals

34.2% 2.92 —

Auxerre at most 1 goal

65.8% 1.52 —

Team goals — RC Lens

RC Lens to score

82.7% 1.21 —

RC Lens not to score

17.3% 5.76 —

RC Lens 2+ goals

49.7% 2.01 —

RC Lens at most 1 goal

50.3% 1.99 —

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Auxerre sample: 20 matches
RC Lens sample: 20 matches
Home xG sample · Auxerre: 3 matches
Away xG sample · RC Lens: 3 matches
Computed: Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 03:30

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Auxerre

1.27 xG created 1.99 xGA

W 0.54 created, 1.72 conceded against Lille
L 1.84 created, 4.41 conceded against RC Lens
L 1.81 created, 1.55 conceded against Angers
L 0.71 created, 2.85 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
W 1.74 created, 1.08 conceded against Nice
W 0.96 created, 0.34 conceded against Stade Brestois

RC Lens

2.15 xG created 1.92 xGA

W 1.54 created, 1.91 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
W 4.41 created, 1.84 conceded against Auxerre
L 2.91 created, 1.83 conceded against RC Strasbourg
L 1.24 created, 1.60 conceded against Lorient
D 1.62 created, 2.59 conceded against Le Mans
L 1.19 created, 1.75 conceded against AS Monaco

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

0 won · 0 drawn · 3 lost