Dukla Banská Bystrica 3:2 MFK Skalica: xG & match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

Dukla Banská Bystrica Home 1.54 xG

MFK Skalica Away 0.77 xG

32 The scoreline reflected the chances

Dukla Banská Bystrica were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was MFK Skalica's attack: 0.77 xG against 1.29 projected (−0.52).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Dukla Banská Bystrica: 41% What happened
Draw: 29%
MFK Skalica: 29%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Dukla Banská Bystrica 1.54 1.54 0.00

MFK Skalica 1.29 0.77 -0.52

MFK Skalica produced 0.52 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Dukla Banská Bystrica MFK Skalica

Shots: 11; 8
On target: 4; 5
Inside the box: 8; 5
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.10

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica

0.70 xG created 2.46 xGA

L 1.08 created, 1.66 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
L 0.56 created, 3.82 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
W 0.74 created, 1.95 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
L 0.40 created, 2.41 conceded against FC Košice

MFK Skalica

1.09 xG created 1.67 xGA

L 0.04 created, 1.24 conceded against 1. FC Tatran Prešov
W 0.67 created, 0.42 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
W 1.95 created, 1.55 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
W 1.08 created, 3.25 conceded against MŠK Žilina
L 2.43 created, 0.93 conceded against FC Košice
D 0.34 created, 2.63 conceded against KFC Komárno

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost

Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Dukla Banská Bystrica against MFK Skalica before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.67	+4.6%	Won
Draw	3.50	+2.3%	Lost
MFK Skalica to score	1.33	+0.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Dukla Banská Bystrica	41.5%	41.8%	−0.3 pp	2.41
Draw	29.2%	26.9%	+2.4 pp	3.42
MFK Skalica	29.3%	31.3%	−2.0 pp	3.41

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Dukla Banská Bystrica to score	81.3%	76.6%	+4.7 pp	1.23
Dukla Banská Bystrica not to score	18.7%	23.4%	−4.7 pp	5.34
MFK Skalica to score	75.2%	70.9%	+4.3 pp	1.33
MFK Skalica not to score	24.8%	29.1%	−4.3 pp	4.03
Both teams to score	62.8%	55.7%	+7.0 pp	1.59
Both teams not to score	37.2%	44.3%	−7.0 pp	2.68
Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals	47.1%	44.3%	+2.9 pp	2.12
Dukla Banská Bystrica at most 1 goal	52.9%	55.7%	−2.9 pp	1.89
MFK Skalica 2+ goals	37.8%	37.5%	+0.3 pp	2.65
MFK Skalica at most 1 goal	62.2%	62.5%	−0.3 pp	1.61
Over 1.5 goals	81.5%	75.4%	+6.1 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.5%	24.6%	−6.1 pp	5.41
Over 2.5 goals	55.4%	52.6%	+2.8 pp	1.80
Under 2.5 goals	44.6%	47.4%	−2.8 pp	2.24

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Dukla Banská Bystrica sample: 4 matches
MFK Skalica sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Dukla Banská Bystrica has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.