Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeMFK Ružomberok 3:0 MFK Zemplín Michalovce
MFK Ružomberok were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 3–0.
The model against the result
- MFK Ružomberok
- 45% What happened
- Draw
- 28%
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- 27%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.55 xG created 1.64 xGA
- L 0.42 created, 0.67 conceded against MFK Skalica
- D 2.41 created, 1.21 conceded against DAC 1904
- L 1.55 created, 1.95 conceded against MFK Skalica
- L 1.11 created, 2.52 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- L 1.95 created, 0.74 conceded against Dukla Banská Bystrica
- L 1.87 created, 2.78 conceded against AS Trenčín
1.10 xG created 1.68 xGA
- W 1.85 created, 0.56 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- L 1.42 created, 0.76 conceded against MŠK Žilina
- D 0.65 created, 1.21 conceded against KFC Komárno
- L 0.26 created, 2.73 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
- W 0.46 created, 2.45 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- W 1.96 created, 2.35 conceded against AS Trenčín
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | +4.9% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.70 | +3.1% | Lost |
| MFK Zemplín Michalovce to score | 1.33 | +0.5% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MFK Ružomberok | 45.4% | 45.0% | +0.4 pp | 2.20 |
| Draw | 27.9% | 25.5% | +2.3 pp | 3.59 |
| MFK Zemplín Michalovce | 26.7% | 29.5% | −2.8 pp | 3.74 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MFK Ružomberok to score | 84.1% | 79.4% | +4.7 pp | 1.19 |
| MFK Ružomberok not to score | 15.9% | 20.6% | −4.7 pp | 6.31 |
| MFK Zemplín Michalovce to score | 75.4% | 70.9% | +4.5 pp | 1.33 |
| MFK Zemplín Michalovce not to score | 24.6% | 29.1% | −4.5 pp | 4.06 |
| Both teams to score | 65.0% | 57.7% | +7.3 pp | 1.54 |
| Both teams not to score | 35.0% | 42.3% | −7.3 pp | 2.85 |
| MFK Ružomberok 2+ goals | 52.4% | 50.0% | +2.4 pp | 1.91 |
| MFK Ružomberok at most 1 goal | 47.6% | 50.0% | −2.4 pp | 2.10 |
| MFK Zemplín Michalovce 2+ goals | 38.0% | 35.5% | +2.5 pp | 2.63 |
| MFK Zemplín Michalovce at most 1 goal | 62.0% | 64.5% | −2.5 pp | 1.61 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.9% | 77.4% | +6.5 pp | 1.19 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.1% | 22.6% | −6.5 pp | 6.21 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | 55.7% | +3.6 pp | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.7% | 44.3% | −3.6 pp | 2.46 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MFK Ružomberok sample
- 20 matches
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.