Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 19:00
Full timeŠK Slovan Bratislava 3:3 MŠK Žilina
ŠK Slovan Bratislava were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 54%. It finished 3–3. The biggest difference was ŠK Slovan Bratislava's attack: 2.98 xG against 1.93 projected (+1.05).
The model against the result
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- 54%
- Draw
- 26% What happened
- MŠK Žilina
- 20%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
ŠK Slovan Bratislava produced 1.05 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 28
- 15
- On target
- 12
- 7
- Inside the box
- 19
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.08
Recent form
2.46 xG created 1.08 xGA
- W 1.66 created, 1.08 conceded against Dukla Banská Bystrica
- W 3.14 created, 0.98 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová
- W 2.52 created, 1.11 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
- W 4.66 created, 0.92 conceded against FC Košice
- L 2.45 created, 0.46 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- L 0.35 created, 1.91 conceded against DAC 1904
1.58 xG created 1.52 xGA
- W 2.53 created, 1.32 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- L 1.10 created, 2.62 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
- L 0.30 created, 1.63 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová
- W 0.76 created, 1.42 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- L 3.25 created, 1.08 conceded against MFK Skalica
- W 1.54 created, 1.04 conceded against KFC Komárno
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 4.50 | +15.1% | Won |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava at most 1 goal | 2.63 | +5.9% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | +0.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava | 54.4% | 59.1% | −4.7 pp | 1.84 |
| Draw | 25.6% | 21.0% | +4.6 pp | 3.91 |
| MŠK Žilina | 20.0% | 19.9% | +0.1 pp | 5.00 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava to score | 87.7% | 86.6% | +1.1 pp | 1.14 |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava not to score | 12.3% | 13.4% | −1.1 pp | 8.10 |
| MŠK Žilina to score | 71.7% | 68.7% | +3.0 pp | 1.39 |
| MŠK Žilina not to score | 28.3% | 31.3% | −3.0 pp | 3.54 |
| Both teams to score | 64.3% | 62.5% | +1.8 pp | 1.56 |
| Both teams not to score | 35.7% | 37.5% | −1.8 pp | 2.80 |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava 2+ goals | 59.6% | 64.5% | −4.9 pp | 1.68 |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava at most 1 goal | 40.4% | 35.5% | +4.9 pp | 2.48 |
| MŠK Žilina 2+ goals | 33.1% | 33.7% | −0.7 pp | 3.02 |
| MŠK Žilina at most 1 goal | 66.9% | 66.3% | +0.7 pp | 1.49 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.2% | 83.0% | +2.2 pp | 1.17 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.8% | 17.0% | −2.2 pp | 6.77 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.8% | 64.5% | −2.7 pp | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.2% | 35.5% | +2.7 pp | 2.62 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava sample
- 20 matches
- MŠK Žilina sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.