Arda Kardzhali 1:1 Cherno More Varna: xG & match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Arda Kardzhali Home 1.38 xG

Cherno More Varna Away 1.34 xG

11 The chances were evenly matched

Arda Kardzhali were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Cherno More Varna's attack: 1.34 xG against 0.90 projected (+0.44).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Arda Kardzhali: 47%
Draw: 32% What happened
Cherno More Varna: 21%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Arda Kardzhali 1.38 1.38 +0.00

Cherno More Varna 0.90 1.34 +0.44

Cherno More Varna produced 0.44 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Arda Kardzhali Cherno More Varna

Shots: 9; 9
On target: 3; 3
Inside the box: 4; 3
xG per shot: 0.15; 0.15

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Arda Kardzhali

1.57 xG created 1.24 xGA

D 0.66 created, 1.39 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
W 2.57 created, 0.00 conceded against Slavia Sofia
L 1.84 created, 1.05 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
W 2.59 created, 1.20 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
W 0.91 created, 0.71 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
L 0.87 created, 3.10 conceded against CSKA Sofia

Cherno More Varna

1.00 xG created 1.42 xGA

D 0.55 created, 0.95 conceded against Botev Vratsa
L 1.94 created, 1.60 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
L 0.25 created, 2.29 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
L 0.68 created, 1.50 conceded against Ludogorets
L 0.88 created, 0.51 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
D 1.71 created, 1.66 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Arda Kardzhali: 1 won · 2 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged4 won1 lost

Won
Lost
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Arda Kardzhali against Cherno More Varna before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.50	+11.7%	Won
Cherno More Varna to win	5.00	+6.9%	Lost
Both teams to score	2.10	+5.2%	Won
Cherno More Varna to score	1.67	+3.5%	Won
Arda Kardzhali at most 1 goal	1.73	+1.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Arda Kardzhali	46.7%	54.4%	−7.7 pp	2.14
Draw	31.9%	26.8%	+5.1 pp	3.13
Cherno More Varna	21.4%	18.8%	+2.6 pp	4.68

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Arda Kardzhali to score	77.6%	78.3%	−0.7 pp	1.29
Arda Kardzhali not to score	22.4%	21.7%	+0.7 pp	4.47
Cherno More Varna to score	62.1%	55.7%	+6.3 pp	1.61
Cherno More Varna not to score	37.9%	44.3%	−6.3 pp	2.64
Both teams to score	50.1%	44.3%	+5.8 pp	2.00
Both teams not to score	49.9%	55.7%	−5.8 pp	2.00
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals	41.2%	46.3%	−5.2 pp	2.43
Arda Kardzhali at most 1 goal	58.8%	53.7%	+5.2 pp	1.70
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals	22.2%	20.8%	+1.4 pp	4.51
Cherno More Varna at most 1 goal	77.8%	79.2%	−1.4 pp	1.28
Over 1.5 goals	70.7%	68.7%	+1.9 pp	1.42
Under 1.5 goals	29.3%	31.3%	−1.9 pp	3.41
Over 2.5 goals	40.3%	42.9%	−2.6 pp	2.48
Under 2.5 goals	59.7%	57.1%	+2.6 pp	1.67

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Arda Kardzhali sample: 20 matches
Cherno More Varna sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.