FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 2:1 FK Dunav Ruse: xG & match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia Home 2.62 xG

FK Dunav Ruse Away 0.88 xG

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 54%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was FC CSKA 1948 Sofia's attack: 2.62 xG against 1.75 projected (+0.87).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia: 54% What happened
Draw: 27%
FK Dunav Ruse: 19%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.75 2.62 +0.87

FK Dunav Ruse 1.02 0.88 -0.14

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia produced 0.87 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia FK Dunav Ruse

Shots: 20; 10
On target: 6; 5
Inside the box: 12; 6
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.09

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia

1.28 xG created 1.29 xGA

W 0.89 created, 1.16 conceded against Botev Vratsa
W 1.05 created, 1.84 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
W 2.54 created, 1.64 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
L 1.03 created, 0.49 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
W 0.80 created, 0.88 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
L 1.35 created, 1.71 conceded against Levski Sofia

FK Dunav Ruse

1.21 xG created 2.25 xGA

L 1.13 created, 2.59 conceded against Levski Sofia
L 0.81 created, 2.12 conceded against Ludogorets
L 0.34 created, 1.81 conceded against CSKA Sofia
L 1.20 created, 2.59 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
D 2.57 created, 2.14 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged2 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC CSKA 1948 Sofia against FK Dunav Ruse before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FK Dunav Ruse to win	7.00	+33.6%	Lost
Draw	4.50	+23.2%	Lost
FK Dunav Ruse 2+ goals	4.50	+22.3%	Lost
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia not to score	8.00	+20.9%	Lost
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia at most 1 goal	2.63	+20.8%	Lost
FK Dunav Ruse to score	1.73	+15.4%	Won
Both teams to score	1.91	+11.3%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.20	+1.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia	53.5%	65.9%	−12.3 pp	1.87
Draw	27.4%	20.8%	+6.6 pp	3.65
FK Dunav Ruse	19.1%	13.4%	+5.7 pp	5.24

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia to score	84.9%	88.1%	−3.2 pp	1.18
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia not to score	15.1%	11.9%	+3.2 pp	6.62
FK Dunav Ruse to score	66.8%	53.7%	+13.2 pp	1.50
FK Dunav Ruse not to score	33.2%	46.3%	−13.2 pp	3.01
Both teams to score	58.3%	48.5%	+9.8 pp	1.71
Both teams not to score	41.7%	51.5%	−9.8 pp	2.40
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 2+ goals	54.0%	64.5%	−10.5 pp	1.85
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia at most 1 goal	46.0%	35.5%	+10.5 pp	2.17
FK Dunav Ruse 2+ goals	27.2%	20.8%	+6.4 pp	3.68
FK Dunav Ruse at most 1 goal	72.8%	79.2%	−6.4 pp	1.37
Over 1.5 goals	80.3%	78.3%	+2.0 pp	1.24
Under 1.5 goals	19.7%	21.7%	−2.0 pp	5.08
Over 2.5 goals	53.8%	57.1%	−3.4 pp	1.86
Under 2.5 goals	46.2%	42.9%	+3.4 pp	2.16

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia sample: 20 matches
FK Dunav Ruse sample: 5 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Warnings

FK Dunav Ruse has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.