Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 13:00
Full timeLokomotiv Plovdiv 0:3 Ludogorets
Ludogorets were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 3–0.
The model against the result
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- 23%
- Draw
- 32%
- Ludogorets
- 45% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
0.88 xG created 1.15 xGA
- L 0.88 created, 0.80 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- W 0.51 created, 0.88 conceded against Cherno More Varna
- L 0.87 created, 1.05 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
- D 0.62 created, 1.27 conceded against CSKA Sofia
- D 1.84 created, 2.39 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
- D 0.53 created, 0.52 conceded against Slavia Sofia
1.87 xG created 0.93 xGA
- D 0.65 created, 1.64 conceded against Slavia Sofia
- D 2.57 created, 0.87 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
- W 3.62 created, 0.75 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
- W 2.55 created, 0.50 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
- W 1.21 created, 0.05 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
- L 0.63 created, 1.79 conceded against CSKA Sofia
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 qualified edges flagged0 won8 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win | 7.00 | +60.6% | Lost |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals | 6.50 | +54.3% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.33 | +39.6% | Lost |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv to score | 2.00 | +27.7% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.38 | +21.2% | Lost |
| Ludogorets at most 1 goal | 2.00 | +19.5% | Lost |
| Ludogorets not to score | 5.00 | +15.1% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.73 | +2.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 22.9% | 13.2% | +9.7 pp | 4.36 |
| Draw | 32.2% | 21.4% | +10.8 pp | 3.10 |
| Ludogorets | 44.9% | 65.4% | −20.5 pp | 2.23 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv to score | 63.8% | 46.3% | +17.5 pp | 1.57 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv not to score | 36.2% | 53.7% | −17.5 pp | 2.76 |
| Ludogorets to score | 77.0% | 81.1% | −4.1 pp | 1.30 |
| Ludogorets not to score | 23.0% | 18.9% | +4.1 pp | 4.34 |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 39.2% | +11.8 pp | 1.96 |
| Both teams not to score | 49.0% | 60.8% | −11.8 pp | 2.04 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals | 23.7% | 14.6% | +9.1 pp | 4.21 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv at most 1 goal | 76.3% | 85.4% | −9.1 pp | 1.31 |
| Ludogorets 2+ goals | 40.2% | 53.7% | −13.4 pp | 2.48 |
| Ludogorets at most 1 goal | 59.8% | 46.3% | +13.4 pp | 1.67 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.1% | 70.9% | +0.2 pp | 1.41 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28.9% | 29.1% | −0.2 pp | 3.46 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.8% | 45.4% | −4.7 pp | 2.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59.2% | 54.6% | +4.7 pp | 1.69 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv sample
- 20 matches
- Ludogorets sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 29 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 59 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.