xgEdge

Expected goals

Ludogorets expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Parva Liga (Bulgaria) · after 6 matches · updated 1 Oct

Ludogorets's attacking and defensive expected goals in Parva Liga (Bulgaria) 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Ludogorets xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
2.42 xG per match
#1/14
Attack (xG per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Ludogorets 2.42
#2 CSKA Sofia 2.13
#3 Levski Sofia 2.09
#4 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.67
#5 Botev Plovdiv 1.61
#6 Arda Kardzhali 1.55
#7 FK Dunav Ruse 1.16
#8 Lokomotiv Sofia 1.10
#9 Cherno More Varna 1.05
#10 FK Spartak Varna 0.93
#11 Botev Vratsa 0.93
#12 FK Septemvri Sofia 0.92
#13 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.89
#14 Slavia Sofia 0.75
League avg
1.37
Total
14.50 6 matches
Defence
1.02 xGA per match
#5/14
Defence (xGA per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Levski Sofia 0.73
#2 CSKA Sofia 0.90
#3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.92
#4 Botev Plovdiv 1.01
#5 Ludogorets 1.02
#6 FK Septemvri Sofia 1.11
#7 Arda Kardzhali 1.26
#8 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.31
#9 Cherno More Varna 1.41
#10 Botev Vratsa 1.49
#11 Slavia Sofia 1.60
#12 Lokomotiv Sofia 2.10
#13 FK Spartak Varna 2.11
#14 FK Dunav Ruse 2.31
League avg
1.37
Total
6.13 6 matches
xG difference
+1.39 xGD per match
#1/14
xG difference (xGD per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Ludogorets +1.39
#2 Levski Sofia +1.36
#3 CSKA Sofia +1.23
#4 Botev Plovdiv +0.60
#5 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia +0.36
#6 Arda Kardzhali +0.29
#7 Lokomotiv Plovdiv -0.03
#8 FK Septemvri Sofia -0.19
#9 Cherno More Varna -0.36
#10 Botev Vratsa -0.55
#11 Slavia Sofia -0.85
#12 Lokomotiv Sofia -1.00
#13 FK Dunav Ruse -1.16
#14 FK Spartak Varna -1.18
League avg
0.00
Total
+8.37 6 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
2.19 xPts per match
#1/14
Expected points (xPts per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Ludogorets 2.19
#2 Levski Sofia 2.19
#3 CSKA Sofia 2.18
#4 Botev Plovdiv 1.83
#5 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.59
#6 Arda Kardzhali 1.57
#7 FK Septemvri Sofia 1.28
#8 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.28
#9 Cherno More Varna 1.11
#10 Botev Vratsa 1.03
#11 FK Spartak Varna 0.81
#12 Slavia Sofia 0.80
#13 Lokomotiv Sofia 0.80
#14 FK Dunav Ruse 0.63
League avg
1.38
Total
13.15 vs 23 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 6 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

Expected goals here are summed over 6 of 9 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

Ludogorets's underlying numbers are league-leading. They rank #1 for xG difference at +1.39 per match, driven by both elite shot volume and the league's best chance quality. Their 12 goals are 2.50 below 14.50 xG, while 18 points are 4.85 above 13.15 xPts — both over the 6 matches with xG. After only 6 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.76 xG from penalties
12 14.50 -2.50 scored 2.50 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
4 6.13 -2.13 conceded 2.13 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
18 13.15 +4.85 4.85 points above xPts far outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Ludogorets are 2.50 goals below their xG after 6 matches.

Goals
12
xG
14.50
Gap
-2.50
Sat 18/07 Mon 27/07 Sun 02/08 Sun 09/08 Sat 15/08 Sun 06/09 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +0.04 -0.08 -1.80 -0.30 -0.88 -2.50 +0.04 -0.12 -1.72 +1.50 -0.58 -1.62 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Ludogorets: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 18/07 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1 0.96 +0.04 +0.04
Mon 27/07 FK Dunav Ruse 2 2.12 -0.12 -0.08
Sun 02/08 Botev Vratsa 2 3.72 -1.72 -1.80
Sun 09/08 Cherno More Varna 3 1.50 +1.50 -0.30
Sat 15/08 Botev Plovdiv 2 2.58 -0.58 -0.88
Sun 06/09 Lokomotiv Sofia 2 3.62 -1.62 -2.50

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Ludogorets xG trend

Current form +1.23 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 5 of 6 matches. The only negative was against Lokomotiv Plovdiv on Sat 18/07 (-0.95).

npxG · last 6
2.29
npxGA · last 6
1.07
-1 0 +1 +2 +3 -0.95 Sat 18/07 +1.31 Mon 27/07 +2.55 Sun 02/08 +0.82 Sun 09/08 +1.51 Sat 15/08 +2.11 Sun 06/09 +1.23 season avg
Ludogorets: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 18/07 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.96 1.91 -0.95 -0.95
Mon 27/07 FK Dunav Ruse 2.12 0.81 +1.31 +0.18
Sun 02/08 Botev Vratsa 3.72 1.17 +2.55 +0.97
Sun 09/08 Cherno More Varna 1.50 0.68 +0.82 +0.93
Sat 15/08 Botev Plovdiv 2.58 1.07 +1.51 +1.05
Sun 06/09 Lokomotiv Sofia 2.86 0.75 +2.11 +1.23

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 2.29 npxG and 1.07 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 14 hardest of 14 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)
−0.25 xG vs league average
Over 9 league matches
Last 5
number 14 hardest of 14 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)
−0.30 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.25 xG vs league average · over 9 matches · number 14 hardest of 14

  1. FK Septemvri Sofia Home −0.20
  2. Lokomotiv Sofia Away −0.37
  3. FK Spartak Varna Away −0.64
  4. Slavia Sofia Home −0.66
  5. Botev Plovdiv Home +0.35
  6. Cherno More Varna Away −0.15
  7. Botev Vratsa Home −0.24
  8. FK Dunav Ruse Away −0.38
  9. Lokomotiv Plovdiv Home +0.04

Last 5

−0.30 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 14 hardest of 14

  1. FK Septemvri Sofia Home −0.20
  2. Lokomotiv Sofia Away −0.37
  3. FK Spartak Varna Away −0.64
  4. Slavia Sofia Home −0.66
  5. Botev Plovdiv Home +0.35

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Ludogorets shots and chance quality

High volume, high quality. Ludogorets take 13.5 shots a match (league 11.4) at 0.17 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #3 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria) for volume and #1 for quality. 67% of their shots come from inside the box (league 57%).

Attack

Shot volume
13.5 shots per match
#3/14
Shot volume (shots per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 CSKA Sofia 19.7
#2 Levski Sofia 16.3
#3 Ludogorets 13.5
#4 Botev Plovdiv 12.8
#5 Arda Kardzhali 12.6
#6 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 12.6
#7 Cherno More Varna 11.1
#8 Lokomotiv Sofia 10.8
#9 FK Septemvri Sofia 9.0
#10 Botev Vratsa 8.6
#11 FK Dunav Ruse 8.5
#12 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 8.3
#13 FK Spartak Varna 8.1
#14 Slavia Sofia 6.7
League avg
11.4
Total
81 shots from 6 matches
Chance quality
0.17 npxG per shot
#1/14
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Ludogorets 0.17
#2 Levski Sofia 0.13
#3 Arda Kardzhali 0.12
#4 FK Dunav Ruse 0.12
#5 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.12
#6 Botev Plovdiv 0.12
#7 FK Spartak Varna 0.12
#8 Botev Vratsa 0.11
#9 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.11
#10 FK Septemvri Sofia 0.10
#11 Slavia Sofia 0.10
#12 CSKA Sofia 0.10
#13 Cherno More Varna 0.09
#14 Lokomotiv Sofia 0.09
League avg
0.11
Total
13.74 npxG from 81 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
9.3 shots per match
#4/14
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Levski Sofia 7.0
#2 CSKA Sofia 8.3
#3 FK Septemvri Sofia 8.6
#4 Ludogorets 9.3
#5 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 9.7
=6 Botev Vratsa 9.9
=6 Cherno More Varna 9.9
#8 Arda Kardzhali 10.1
#9 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 11.2
#10 Botev Plovdiv 11.8
=11 FK Spartak Varna 15.0
=11 Lokomotiv Sofia 15.0
#13 Slavia Sofia 15.3
#14 FK Dunav Ruse 18.7
League avg
11.4
Total
56 shots allowed from 6 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#8/14
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Botev Plovdiv 0.09
#2 Levski Sofia 0.09
#3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.09
#4 Slavia Sofia 0.10
#5 Arda Kardzhali 0.10
#6 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.11
#7 CSKA Sofia 0.11
#8 Ludogorets 0.11
#9 FK Dunav Ruse 0.12
#10 Lokomotiv Sofia 0.13
#11 FK Septemvri Sofia 0.13
#12 FK Spartak Varna 0.13
#13 Cherno More Varna 0.13
#14 Botev Vratsa 0.15
League avg
0.11
Total
6.39 npxGA from 56 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

67% inside the box

League avg 57%

From 54 of 81 shots over 6 matches

Early-season figure: after 6 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

57% allowed inside the box

League avg 57%

From 32 of 56 shots allowed over 6 matches

Early-season figure: after 6 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Ludogorets home and away xG

Ludogorets per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 5 3 with xG 4 3 with xG
xG / match 2.42 2.41
xGA / match 1.30 0.75
xGD / match +1.12 +1.67
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.97 2.41

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Ludogorets match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Away this season

Matches
4 3 with xG
xG / match
2.41
xGA / match
0.75
xGD / match
+1.67
Points
10 of 12
  1. Sun 06/09 Lokomotiv Sofia A xG 3.62 P xGA 0.75 xGD +2.87
  2. Sun 30/08 FK Spartak Varna A
  3. Sun 09/08 Cherno More Varna A xG 1.50 xGA 0.68 xGD +0.82
  4. Mon 27/07 FK Dunav Ruse A xG 2.12 xGA 0.81 xGD +1.31

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.62. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Ludogorets in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

Mind if we count your visit?

We use Google Analytics only to see how many people visit and which pages they read. It loads after you allow it — no ads, no tracking across other sites. What we collect