Friday, 30/10/2026 at 20:45
26d 20h to kick-offDrogheda United – Galway United
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Drogheda United
- 41%
- Draw
- 28%
- Galway United
- 31%
| Drogheda United | Draw | Galway United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.47 | 3.54 | 3.21 |
- Total goals
- 3.02
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Drogheda United
41% Drogheda United to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 9th
- Drogheda United attack v Galway United defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 7th
- Drogheda United defence v Galway United attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.85 vs -0.30
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.61 – 1.41
- Drogheda United v Galway United
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Drogheda United | Galway United |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.16 · 9th | (better) 1.35 · 7th |
| xGA / match | 1.60 · 8th | (better) 1.51 · 6th |
| xGD / match | -0.44 · 9th | (better) -0.16 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 1.10 · 9th | (better) 1.28 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.85 | (better) -0.30 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Drogheda United clean sheet
- 22%
- Drogheda United 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.5%
- 2:1
- 10.2%
- 1:2
- 8.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Drogheda United sample
- 20 matches
- Galway United sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Drogheda United
- 16 matches
- Away xG sample · Galway United
- 16 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.