Friday, 25/09/2026 at 20:45
Full timeGalway United 1:1 Shelbourne
Shelbourne were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Shelbourne's attack: 0.60 xG against 1.64 projected (−1.04).
The model against the result
- Galway United
- 31%
- Draw
- 28% What happened
- Shelbourne
- 41%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Shelbourne produced 1.04 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 10
- 11
- On target
- 2
- 3
- Inside the box
- 6
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.16
- 0.05
Recent form
1.40 xG created 1.59 xGA
- D 2.18 created, 0.60 conceded against Drogheda United
- W 0.79 created, 2.21 conceded against Dundalk FC
- D 0.54 created, 2.26 conceded against Shelbourne
- L 1.84 created, 2.77 conceded against Bohemian FC
- W 2.42 created, 0.97 conceded against Sligo Rovers
- L 0.61 created, 0.74 conceded against Derry City
1.42 xG created 1.48 xGA
- L 1.12 created, 3.15 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
- D 2.26 created, 0.54 conceded against Galway United
- D 0.82 created, 1.65 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
- L 0.82 created, 1.05 conceded against Derry City
- L 1.32 created, 1.32 conceded against Drogheda United
- W 2.18 created, 1.18 conceded against Dundalk FC
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged0 won0 lost5 not settled
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shelbourne 2+ goals | 2.10 | +6.0% | Not settled |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | +4.9% | Not settled |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | +1.8% | Not settled |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | +1.8% | Not settled |
| Shelbourne to score | 1.22 | +1.5% | Not settled |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galway United | 31.1% | 35.1% | −4.0 pp | 3.22 |
| Draw | 27.9% | 26.9% | +1.1 pp | 3.58 |
| Shelbourne | 41.0% | 38.0% | +3.0 pp | 2.44 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galway United to score | 78.6% | 75.0% | +3.6 pp | 1.27 |
| Galway United not to score | 21.4% | 25.0% | −3.6 pp | 4.67 |
| Shelbourne to score | 83.1% | 76.6% | +6.5 pp | 1.20 |
| Shelbourne not to score | 16.9% | 23.4% | −6.5 pp | 5.91 |
| Both teams to score | 66.8% | 58.9% | +7.9 pp | 1.50 |
| Both teams not to score | 33.2% | 41.1% | −7.9 pp | 3.01 |
| Galway United 2+ goals | 42.9% | 42.3% | +0.6 pp | 2.33 |
| Galway United at most 1 goal | 57.1% | 57.7% | −0.6 pp | 1.75 |
| Shelbourne 2+ goals | 50.5% | 44.3% | +6.2 pp | 1.98 |
| Shelbourne at most 1 goal | 49.5% | 55.7% | −6.2 pp | 2.02 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.9% | 78.3% | +6.6 pp | 1.18 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.1% | 21.7% | −6.6 pp | 6.61 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.1% | 56.3% | +4.7 pp | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.9% | 43.7% | −4.7 pp | 2.57 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Galway United sample
- 20 matches
- Shelbourne sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 days before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 days before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.