Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Arsenal – Aston Villa
Model updated 4 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Arsenal
- 58%
- Draw
- 27%
- Aston Villa
- 14%
| Arsenal | Draw | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.72 | 3.66 | 6.94 |
- Total goals
- 2.52
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score
- 51%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Arsenal
58% Arsenal to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 18th
- Arsenal attack v Aston Villa defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 15th
- Arsenal defence v Aston Villa attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.00 vs -0.71
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.71 – 0.81
- Arsenal v Aston Villa
Squad news
Arsenal
10 listed-
William Saliba 0% chance
Defender · Back injury - Unknown return date
-
Gabriel Martinelli 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Al Hilal permanently
-
Gabriel Jesus 0% chance
Forward · Has joined FC Barcelona permanently
-
Ethan Nwaneri 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Borussia Dortmund on loan for the rest of the season
-
Fábio Vieira 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Hamburger SV permanently
-
Reiss Nelson 0% chance
Midfielder · has departed the club as a free agent.
-
Christos Tzolis 75% chance
Midfielder · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Declan Rice 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Kai Havertz 75% chance
Forward · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Benjamin White 75% chance
Defender · Groin injury - 75% chance of playing
Aston Villa
13 listed-
Ollie Watkins 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Al Hilal permanently
-
Ian Maatsen 0% chance
Defender · Ankle injury - Unknown return date
-
Pau Torres 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Brian Madjo 0% chance
Forward · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Leon Bailey 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Olympiakos permanently
-
Kosta Nedeljkovic 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Rangers on loan for the rest of the season
-
Marco Bizot 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Back injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Luka Lynch 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Oxford United on loan until January
-
Leon Goretzka 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Lucas Digne 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Paris Saint-Germain permanently
-
Amadou Onana 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Samuel Iling-Junior 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Bolton Wanderers on loan for the rest of the season
-
Alysson 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Arsenal | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.70 · 6th | 0.91 · 20th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.81 · 1st | 1.84 · 19th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.89 · 1st | -0.94 · 20th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.07 · 1st | 0.90 · 18th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.00 | -0.71 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- Arsenal clean sheet
- 41%
- Arsenal 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score: no
- 49%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.3%
- 2:0
- 12.0%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Arsenal sample
- 20 matches
- Aston Villa sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Arsenal
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Aston Villa
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.