Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Arsenal – Newcastle United
Model updated 4 October, 06:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Arsenal
- 63%
- Draw
- 25%
- Newcastle United
- 12%
| Arsenal | Draw | Newcastle United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.59 | 4.00 | 8.17 |
- Total goals
- 2.66
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score
- 52%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Arsenal
63% Arsenal to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 20th
- Arsenal attack v Newcastle United defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 19th
- Arsenal defence v Newcastle United attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.00 vs -0.89
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.87 – 0.79
- Arsenal v Newcastle United
Squad news
Arsenal
10 listed-
William Saliba 0% chance
Defender · Back injury - Unknown return date
-
Gabriel Martinelli 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Al Hilal permanently
-
Gabriel Jesus 0% chance
Forward · Has joined FC Barcelona permanently
-
Ethan Nwaneri 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Borussia Dortmund on loan for the rest of the season
-
Fábio Vieira 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Hamburger SV permanently
-
Reiss Nelson 0% chance
Midfielder · has departed the club as a free agent.
-
Christos Tzolis 75% chance
Midfielder · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Declan Rice 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Kai Havertz 75% chance
Forward · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Benjamin White 75% chance
Defender · Groin injury - 75% chance of playing
Newcastle United
13 listed-
Anthony Elanga 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Amar Dedic 0% chance
Defender · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Dan Burn 0% chance
Defender · Ankle injury - Expected back 12 Oct
-
Nick Woltemade 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Juventus on loan for the rest of the season
-
Sean Neave 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Wolves on loan for the rest of the season
-
William Osula 0% chance
Forward · Foot injury - Unknown return date
-
Jacob Ramsey 0% chance
Midfielder · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Leo Shahar 0% chance
Defender · has joined Arouca on loan for the rest of the seaon.
-
Alex Murphy 0% chance
Defender · Has joined FC Kaiserslautern on loan for the rest of the season
-
Joelinton 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Ewen Jaouen 50% chance
Goalkeeper · Ankle injury - 50% chance of playing
-
Tino Livramento 75% chance
Defender · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Lewis Miley 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Arsenal | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.70 · 6th | 1.07 · 17th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.81 · 1st | 1.83 · 18th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.89 · 1st | -0.76 · 19th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.07 · 1st | 0.82 · 20th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.00 | -0.89 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Arsenal clean sheet
- 42%
- Arsenal 2+ goals
- 58%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score: no
- 48%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.0%
- 2:0
- 12.5%
- 2:1
- 11.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Arsenal sample
- 20 matches
- Newcastle United sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Arsenal
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Newcastle United
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.