Aston Villa 2:1 Manchester United: xG & match report · Premier League

Sunday, 21/12/2025 at 17:30

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Match report · Premier League

Aston Villa Home 1.54 xG · 12 shots

Manchester United Away 1.33 xG · 15 shots

21 The chances were evenly matched

Goals

45' Morgan Rogers Aston Villa · 0.03 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.
45' Matheus Cunha Manchester United · 0.16 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.
57' Morgan Rogers Aston Villa · 0.03 xG chance 2–1

The shots behind it

Aston Villa Manchester United

Shots: 12; 15
On target: 4; 6
Inside the box: 8; 5
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.09
Open play xG: 0.52; 1.28
Set-piece xG: 1.02; 0.08
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.32 for Manchester United.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 2.90 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Aston Villa
Manchester United
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Aston Villa

1.58 xG created 1.51 xGA

W 1.70 created, 1.61 conceded against Bournemouth
W 1.58 created, 1.79 conceded against Leeds United
W 0.94 created, 0.49 conceded against Wolverhampton
W 2.41 created, 2.21 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
W 2.16 created, 1.92 conceded against Arsenal
W 0.67 created, 1.03 conceded against West Ham United

Manchester United

2.16 xG created 1.02 xGA

D 0.63 created, 0.92 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
L 1.71 created, 0.21 conceded against Everton
W 1.19 created, 1.83 conceded against Crystal Palace
D 1.80 created, 0.79 conceded against West Ham United
W 4.24 created, 0.41 conceded against Wolverhampton
D 3.40 created, 1.94 conceded against Bournemouth

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

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The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.