Chelsea 1:2 Aston Villa: xG & match report · Premier League

Saturday, 27/12/2025 at 18:30

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Chelsea Home 2.14 xG · 14 shots

Aston Villa Away 1.19 xG · 11 shots

12 The result went against the chances

Goals

37' João Pedro Chelsea · 0.89 xG chance 1–0
63' Ollie Watkins Aston Villa · 0.25 xG chance 1–1
84' Ollie Watkins Aston Villa · 0.19 xG chance 1–2

The shots behind it

Chelsea Aston Villa

Shots: 14; 11
On target: 3; 8
Inside the box: 8; 7
xG per shot: 0.15; 0.11
Open play xG: 1.11; 0.91
Set-piece xG: 0.95; 0.31
Penalties: —; —

Chelsea's shots add up to 2.06 xG and Aston Villa's to 1.22; the published figures are 2.14 and 1.19.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

25 shots · 3.28 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Chelsea
Aston Villa
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Chelsea

1.33 xG created 1.55 xGA

W 1.72 created, 0.44 conceded against Burnley
D 0.79 created, 1.26 conceded against Arsenal
L 1.11 created, 2.82 conceded against Leeds United
D 0.92 created, 1.42 conceded against Bournemouth
W 2.20 created, 1.03 conceded against Everton
D 1.22 created, 2.31 conceded against Newcastle United

Aston Villa

1.55 xG created 1.46 xGA

W 1.58 created, 1.79 conceded against Leeds United
W 0.94 created, 0.49 conceded against Wolverhampton
W 2.41 created, 2.21 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
W 2.16 created, 1.92 conceded against Arsenal
W 0.67 created, 1.03 conceded against West Ham United
W 1.54 created, 1.33 conceded against Manchester United

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.