Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Manchester City – Aston Villa
Model updated 7 October, 15:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Manchester City
- 58%
- Draw
- 25%
- Aston Villa
- 17%
| Manchester City | Draw | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.73 | 4.06 | 5.74 |
- Total goals
- 3.12
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Manchester City
58% Manchester City to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 18th
- Manchester City attack v Aston Villa defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 15th
- Manchester City defence v Aston Villa attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.47 vs -0.71
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.01 – 1.11
- Manchester City v Aston Villa
Squad news
Manchester City
10 listed-
Phil Foden 0% chance
Midfielder · Suspended until 17 Oct
-
Divine Mukasa 0% chance
Midfielder · has joined West Ham on loan for the rest of the seaon.
-
Max Alleyne 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Burnley on loan for the rest of the season
-
Tijjani Reijnders 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Al Qadsiah permanently
-
Claudio Echeverri 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Benfica on loan for the rest of the season
-
Kalvin Phillips 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Sheffield United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Jeremy Monga 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Swansea City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Rodri 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Barcelona permanently
-
Antoine Semenyo 75% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Nico O'Reilly 75% chance
Defender · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Aston Villa
13 listed-
Ollie Watkins 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Al Hilal permanently
-
Ian Maatsen 0% chance
Defender · Ankle injury - Unknown return date
-
Pau Torres 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Brian Madjo 0% chance
Forward · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Kosta Nedeljkovic 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Rangers on loan for the rest of the season
-
Leon Bailey 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Olympiakos permanently
-
Marco Bizot 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Back injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Luka Lynch 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Oxford United on loan until January
-
Samuel Iling-Junior 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Bolton Wanderers on loan for the rest of the season
-
Leon Goretzka 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Lucas Digne 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Paris Saint-Germain permanently
-
Amadou Onana 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Alysson 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Manchester City | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.10 · 2nd | 0.91 · 20th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.45 · 9th | 1.84 · 19th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.65 · 3rd | -0.94 · 20th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.87 · 2nd | 0.90 · 18th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.47 | -0.71 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Manchester City clean sheet
- 30%
- Manchester City 2+ goals
- 62%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 38%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.9%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
- 2:0
- 8.8%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Manchester City sample
- 20 matches
- Aston Villa sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Manchester City
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Aston Villa
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 07/10/2026 at 15:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.