Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Manchester City – Leeds United
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Manchester City
- 54%
- Draw
- 26%
- Leeds United
- 20%
| Manchester City | Draw | Leeds United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.87 | 3.81 | 4.94 |
- Total goals
- 3.01
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Manchester City
54% Manchester City to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 10th
- Manchester City attack v Leeds United defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 14th
- Manchester City defence v Leeds United attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.47 vs +0.07
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.87 – 1.14
- Manchester City v Leeds United
Squad news
Manchester City
9 listed-
Phil Foden 0% chance
Midfielder · Suspended until 17 Oct
-
Divine Mukasa 0% chance
Midfielder · has joined West Ham on loan for the rest of the seaon.
-
Max Alleyne 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Burnley on loan for the rest of the season
-
Tijjani Reijnders 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Al Qadsiah permanently
-
Claudio Echeverri 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Benfica on loan for the rest of the season
-
Kalvin Phillips 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Sheffield United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Jeremy Monga 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Swansea City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Rodri 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Barcelona permanently
-
Antoine Semenyo 75% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
Leeds United
8 listed-
Harry Wilson 0% chance
Midfielder · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Joe Rodon 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Expected back 21 Nov
-
Lucas Perri 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Torino on loan for the rest of the season
-
Joël Piroe 0% chance
Forward · Has joined West Ham United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mateo Joseph Fernández-Regatillo 0% chance
Forward · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Jack Harrison 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined New England Revolution permanently
-
Sebastiaan Bornauw 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Hamburg SV on loan for the rest of the season
-
Wilfried Gnonto 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined ACF Fiorentina on loan for the rest of the season
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Manchester City | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.10 · 2nd | 1.56 · 9th |
| xGA / match | 1.45 · 9th | (better) 1.27 · 5th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.65 · 3rd | +0.29 · 8th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.87 · 2nd | 1.55 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.47 | +0.07 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Manchester City clean sheet
- 29%
- Manchester City 2+ goals
- 58%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.8%
- 2:1
- 11.4%
- 2:0
- 8.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Manchester City sample
- 20 matches
- Leeds United sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Manchester City
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Leeds United
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.