Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 18:30
6d 16h to kick-offManchester United – Tottenham Hotspur
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Manchester United
- 57%
- Draw
- 26%
- Tottenham Hotspur
- 17%
| Manchester United | Draw | Tottenham Hotspur | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.76 | 3.82 | 5.84 |
- Total goals
- 2.84
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 6 outcomes.
-
Manchester United
- Model
- 56.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 54.7%
- Probability gap
- +2.0 pp
- Edge
- −3.6%
- Fair odds
- 1.76
- Market odds
- 1.70 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 1.85
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.5%
-
Draw
- Model
- 26.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 23.8%
- Probability gap
- +2.3 pp
- Edge
- +2.0%
- Fair odds
- 3.82
- Market odds
- 3.90 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.02
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.5%
-
Tottenham Hotspur
- Model
- 17.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 21.5%
- Probability gap
- −4.3 pp
- Edge
- −25.8%
- Fair odds
- 5.84
- Market odds
- 4.33 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 6.13
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.5%
Outcomes with value
Tottenham Hotspur not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Tottenham Hotspur at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Manchester United at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Tottenham Hotspur not to score
Model 34.2% vs. bookmaker 29.1%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Manchester United
57% Manchester United to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 8th
- Manchester United attack v Tottenham Hotspur defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 20th
- Manchester United defence v Tottenham Hotspur attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.59 vs -0.34
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.84 – 0.99
- Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur
Squad news
Manchester United
13 listed-
Chido Obi 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Willem II on loan for the rest of the season
-
Amad Diallo 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Tom Heaton 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
-
Manuel Ugarte Ribeiro 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Tyler Fredricson 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Lausanne-Sport permanently
-
Altay Bayındır 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Celta Vigo on loan for the rest of the season
-
Toby Collyer 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined West Brom permanently
-
Matthijs de Ligt 0% chance
Defender · Back injury - Unknown return date
-
Benjamin Sesko 75% chance
Forward · Shin injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Kobbie Mainoo 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Marcus Rashford 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Patrick Dorgu 75% chance
Midfielder · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Karl Darlow 75% chance
Goalkeeper · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Tottenham Hotspur
15 listed-
Dane Scarlett 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Leyton Orient permanently
-
Richarlison 0% chance
Forward · not included in squad.
-
Djed Spence 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Internazionale permanently
-
Souza 0% chance
Defender · Has joined FC Porto on loan for the rest of the season
-
Guglielmo Vicario 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Juventus on loan for the rest of the season
-
Cristian Romero 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Atletico Madrid permanently
-
Pape Matar Sarr 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Juventus on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mikey Moore 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined FC Köln on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mykhailo Mudryk 0% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - Unknown return date
-
Ashley Phillips 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Middlesbrough permanently
-
Xavi Simons 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Wilson Odobert 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Dejan Kulusevski 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Pedro Porro Sauceda 75% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Jan Paul van Hecke 75% chance
Defender · Foot injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Manchester United | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.93 · 4th | 1.00 · 18th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.40 · 8th | 1.56 · 11th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.53 · 5th | -0.56 · 16th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.60 · 7th | 1.17 · 13th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.59 | -0.34 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Manchester United clean sheet
- 34%
- Manchester United 2+ goals
- 57%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.2%
- 2:1
- 11.7%
- 2:0
- 10.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Manchester United sample
- 20 matches
- Tottenham Hotspur sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Manchester United
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Tottenham Hotspur
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.