xgEdge

Expected goals

Wolverhampton expected goals (xG) 2025/2026

Premier League · after 38 matches · updated 1 Oct

Wolverhampton's attacking and defensive expected goals in Premier League 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Wolverhampton xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
0.94 xG per match
#19/20
Attack (xG per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Manchester City 1.87
#2 Chelsea 1.75
#3 Arsenal 1.71
#4 Manchester United 1.70
#5 Bournemouth 1.64
#6 Brentford 1.59
#7 Liverpool 1.58
#8 Crystal Palace 1.53
#9 Brighton & Hove Albion 1.51
#10 Newcastle United 1.49
#11 Leeds United 1.43
#12 Fulham 1.27
#13 Aston Villa 1.26
#14 West Ham United 1.21
#15 Everton 1.20
#16 Nottingham Forest 1.20
#17 Tottenham Hotspur 1.08
#18 Sunderland 1.01
#19 Wolverhampton 0.94
#20 Burnley 0.85
League avg
1.39
Total
35.70 38 matches
Defence
1.53 xGA per match
#18/20
Defence (xGA per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Arsenal 0.74
#2 Manchester City 1.16
#3 Liverpool 1.26
#4 Manchester United 1.27
#5 Brighton & Hove Albion 1.30
#6 Newcastle United 1.34
#7 Tottenham Hotspur 1.35
#8 Chelsea 1.38
#9 Fulham 1.38
#10 Crystal Palace 1.38
#11 Sunderland 1.41
#12 Brentford 1.42
#13 Aston Villa 1.44
#14 Everton 1.46
#15 Leeds United 1.47
#16 Bournemouth 1.47
#17 Nottingham Forest 1.48
#18 Wolverhampton 1.53
#19 West Ham United 1.57
#20 Burnley 1.99
League avg
1.39
Total
58.31 38 matches
xG difference
-0.60 xGD per match
#19/20
xG difference (xGD per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Arsenal +0.97
#2 Manchester City +0.71
#3 Manchester United +0.43
#4 Chelsea +0.38
#5 Liverpool +0.33
#6 Brighton & Hove Albion +0.21
#7 Bournemouth +0.17
#8 Brentford +0.17
#9 Newcastle United +0.15
#10 Crystal Palace +0.14
#11 Leeds United -0.04
#12 Fulham -0.11
#13 Aston Villa -0.19
#14 Everton -0.26
#15 Tottenham Hotspur -0.27
#16 Nottingham Forest -0.28
#17 West Ham United -0.37
#18 Sunderland -0.40
#19 Wolverhampton -0.60
#20 Burnley -1.14
League avg
0.00
Total
-22.61 38 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.00 xPts per match
#19/20
Expected points (xPts per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Arsenal 2.04
#2 Manchester City 1.86
#3 Manchester United 1.62
#4 Liverpool 1.60
#5 Chelsea 1.57
#6 Bournemouth 1.52
#7 Brighton & Hove Albion 1.51
#8 Brentford 1.49
#9 Newcastle United 1.47
#10 Crystal Palace 1.46
#11 Leeds United 1.42
#12 Fulham 1.29
#13 Aston Villa 1.25
#14 Tottenham Hotspur 1.22
#15 Nottingham Forest 1.20
#16 Everton 1.18
#17 West Ham United 1.14
#18 Sunderland 1.09
#19 Wolverhampton 1.00
#20 Burnley 0.65
League avg
1.38
Total
38.17 vs 20 actual pts

What the xG says

Wolverhampton's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Premier League. They rank #19 for xG difference at -0.60 per match, from low shot volume and the league's lowest chance quality. Their 27 goals are 8.70 below 35.70 xG, while 20 points are 18.17 below 38.17 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 3.33 xG from penalties
27 35.70 -8.70 scored 8.70 fewer than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
68 58.31 +9.69 conceded 9.69 more than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
20 38.17 -18.17 18.17 points below xPts far outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Wolverhampton are 8.70 goals below their xG after 38 matches.

Goals
27
xG
35.70
Gap
-8.70
Sat 16/08 Sat 23/08 Sat 30/08 Sat 13/09 Sat 20/09 Sat 27/09 Sun 05/10 Sat 18/10 Sun 26/10 Sat 01/11 Sat 08/11 Sat 22/11 Sun 30/11 Wed 03/12 Mon 08/12 Sat 13/12 Sat 20/12 Sat 27/12 Tue 30/12 Sat 03/01 Wed 07/01 Sun 18/01 Sat 24/01 Sat 31/01 Sat 07/02 Wed 11/02 Wed 18/02 Sun 22/02 Fri 27/02 Tue 03/03 Mon 16/03 Fri 10/04 Sat 18/04 Sat 25/04 Sat 02/05 Sat 09/05 Sun 17/05 Sun 24/05 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 +1 -0.56 -1.02 -0.13 -0.63 -1.41 -1.56 -1.12 -1.95 -2.23 -2.47 -2.64 -4.43 -4.92 -5.83 -5.24 -4.62 -5.89 -5.96 -6.12 -4.99 -4.67 -4.96 -5.55 -6.99 -7.08 -7.50 -5.79 -7.47 -6.39 -4.83 -4.22 -4.81 -5.38 -6.00 -6.72 -7.21 -7.61 -8.70 -0.56 -0.46 +0.89 -0.50 -0.78 -0.15 +0.44 -0.83 -0.28 -0.24 -0.17 -1.79 -0.49 -0.91 +0.59 +0.62 -1.27 -0.07 -0.16 +1.13 +0.32 -0.29 -0.59 -1.44 -0.09 -0.42 +1.71 -1.68 +1.08 +1.56 +0.61 -0.59 -0.57 -0.62 -0.72 -0.49 -0.40 -1.09 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Wolverhampton: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 16/08 Manchester City 0 0.56 -0.56 -0.56
Sat 23/08 Bournemouth 0 0.46 -0.46 -1.02
Sat 30/08 Everton 2 1.11 +0.89 -0.13
Sat 13/09 Newcastle United 0 0.50 -0.50 -0.63
Sat 20/09 Leeds United 1 1.78 -0.78 -1.41
Sat 27/09 Tottenham Hotspur 1 1.15 -0.15 -1.56
Sun 05/10 Brighton & Hove Albion 1 0.56 +0.44 -1.12
Sat 18/10 Sunderland 0 0.83 -0.83 -1.95
Sun 26/10 Burnley 2 2.28 -0.28 -2.23
Sat 01/11 Fulham 0 0.24 -0.24 -2.47
Sat 08/11 Chelsea 0 0.17 -0.17 -2.64
Sat 22/11 Crystal Palace 0 1.79 -1.79 -4.43
Sun 30/11 Aston Villa 0 0.49 -0.49 -4.92
Wed 03/12 Nottingham Forest 0 0.91 -0.91 -5.83
Mon 08/12 Manchester United 1 0.41 +0.59 -5.24
Sat 13/12 Arsenal 1 0.38 +0.62 -4.62
Sat 20/12 Brentford 0 1.27 -1.27 -5.89
Sat 27/12 Liverpool 1 1.07 -0.07 -5.96
Tue 30/12 Manchester United 1 1.16 -0.16 -6.12
Sat 03/01 West Ham United 3 1.87 +1.13 -4.99
Wed 07/01 Everton 1 0.68 +0.32 -4.67
Sun 18/01 Newcastle United 0 0.29 -0.29 -4.96
Sat 24/01 Manchester City 0 0.59 -0.59 -5.55
Sat 31/01 Bournemouth 0 1.44 -1.44 -6.99
Sat 07/02 Chelsea 1 1.09 -0.09 -7.08
Wed 11/02 Nottingham Forest 0 0.42 -0.42 -7.50
Wed 18/02 Arsenal 2 0.29 +1.71 -5.79
Sun 22/02 Crystal Palace 0 1.68 -1.68 -7.47
Fri 27/02 Aston Villa 2 0.92 +1.08 -6.39
Tue 03/03 Liverpool 2 0.44 +1.56 -4.83
Mon 16/03 Brentford 2 1.39 +0.61 -4.22
Fri 10/04 West Ham United 0 0.59 -0.59 -4.81
Sat 18/04 Leeds United 0 0.57 -0.57 -5.38
Sat 25/04 Tottenham Hotspur 0 0.62 -0.62 -6.00
Sat 02/05 Sunderland 1 1.72 -0.72 -6.72
Sat 09/05 Brighton & Hove Albion 0 0.49 -0.49 -7.21
Sun 17/05 Fulham 1 1.40 -0.40 -7.61
Sun 24/05 Burnley 1 2.09 -1.09 -8.70

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Wolverhampton xG trend

Current form -0.15 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 12 of 38 matches. The worst was against Chelsea on Sat 08/11 (-3.13).

npxG · last 6
1.01
npxGA · last 6
1.16
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -1.91 Sat 16/08 -0.82 Sat 23/08 -0.82 Sat 30/08 -1.05 Sat 13/09 +1.27 Sat 20/09 +0.39 Sat 27/09 -0.36 Sun 05/10 +0.03 Sat 18/10 +0.09 Sun 26/10 -1.03 Sat 01/11 -3.13 Sat 08/11 +0.59 Sat 22/11 -0.57 Sun 30/11 +0.14 Wed 03/12 -2.93 Mon 08/12 -0.44 Sat 13/12 -0.87 Sat 20/12 -0.38 Sat 27/12 +0.46 Tue 30/12 +0.76 Sat 03/01 -0.17 Wed 07/01 -0.59 Sun 18/01 -0.33 Sat 24/01 +0.09 Sat 31/01 -0.49 Sat 07/02 -2.24 Wed 11/02 -1.76 Wed 18/02 -0.78 Sun 22/02 -0.14 Fri 27/02 -1.39 Tue 03/03 -1.17 Mon 16/03 -1.08 Fri 10/04 -1.46 Sat 18/04 -0.43 Sat 25/04 +1.14 Sat 02/05 -1.00 Sat 09/05 +0.65 Sun 17/05 +0.20 Sun 24/05 -0.57 season avg
Wolverhampton: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 16/08 Manchester City 0.56 2.47 -1.91 -1.91
Sat 23/08 Bournemouth 0.47 1.29 -0.82 -1.37
Sat 30/08 Everton 1.11 1.93 -0.82 -1.18
Sat 13/09 Newcastle United 0.50 1.55 -1.05 -1.15
Sat 20/09 Leeds United 1.78 0.51 +1.27 -0.67
Sat 27/09 Tottenham Hotspur 1.20 0.81 +0.39 -0.49
Sun 05/10 Brighton & Hove Albion 0.56 0.92 -0.36 -0.47
Sat 18/10 Sunderland 0.78 0.75 +0.03 -0.41
Sun 26/10 Burnley 1.49 1.40 +0.09 -0.35
Sat 01/11 Fulham 0.39 1.42 -1.03 -0.42
Sat 08/11 Chelsea 0.20 3.33 -3.13 -0.67
Sat 22/11 Crystal Palace 1.86 1.27 +0.59 -0.56
Sun 30/11 Aston Villa 0.37 0.94 -0.57 -0.56
Wed 03/12 Nottingham Forest 0.88 0.74 +0.14 -0.51
Mon 08/12 Manchester United 0.58 3.51 -2.93 -0.67
Sat 13/12 Arsenal 0.69 1.13 -0.44 -0.66
Sat 20/12 Brentford 0.48 1.35 -0.87 -0.67
Sat 27/12 Liverpool 1.17 1.55 -0.38 -0.66
Tue 30/12 Manchester United 1.26 0.80 +0.46 -0.60
Sat 03/01 West Ham United 1.08 0.32 +0.76 -0.53
Wed 07/01 Everton 0.70 0.87 -0.17 -0.51
Sun 18/01 Newcastle United 0.29 0.88 -0.59 -0.52
Sat 24/01 Manchester City 0.59 0.92 -0.33 -0.51
Sat 31/01 Bournemouth 1.45 1.36 +0.09 -0.48
Sat 07/02 Chelsea 1.09 1.58 -0.49 -0.48
Wed 11/02 Nottingham Forest 0.42 2.66 -2.24 -0.55
Wed 18/02 Arsenal 0.12 1.88 -1.76 -0.60
Sun 22/02 Crystal Palace 0.89 1.67 -0.78 -0.60
Fri 27/02 Aston Villa 0.92 1.06 -0.14 -0.59
Tue 03/03 Liverpool 0.44 1.83 -1.39 -0.61
Mon 16/03 Brentford 1.39 2.56 -1.17 -0.63
Fri 10/04 West Ham United 0.61 1.69 -1.08 -0.64
Sat 18/04 Leeds United 0.53 1.99 -1.46 -0.67
Sat 25/04 Tottenham Hotspur 0.62 1.05 -0.43 -0.66
Sat 02/05 Sunderland 1.78 0.64 +1.14 -0.61
Sat 09/05 Brighton & Hove Albion 0.46 1.46 -1.00 -0.62
Sun 17/05 Fulham 1.40 0.75 +0.65 -0.59
Sun 24/05 Burnley 1.26 1.06 +0.20 -0.57

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.85 npxG and 1.42 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 2 hardest of 20 in Premier League
+0.02 xG vs league average
Over 38 league matches
Last 5
tied number 18 hardest of 20 in Premier League
−0.12 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.02 xG vs league average · over 38 matches · number 2 hardest of 20

  1. Burnley Away −0.69
  2. Fulham Home +0.02
  3. Brighton & Hove Albion Away +0.20
  4. Sunderland Home −0.14
  5. Tottenham Hotspur Home +0.03
  6. Leeds United Away −0.14
  7. West Ham United Away −0.14
  8. Brentford Away −0.09
  9. Liverpool Home +0.21
  10. Aston Villa Home +0.01
  11. Crystal Palace Away −0.05
  12. Arsenal Home +0.48
  13. Nottingham Forest Away −0.14
  14. Chelsea Home +0.09
  15. Bournemouth Home +0.16
  16. Manchester City Away +0.51
  17. Newcastle United Home −0.03
  18. Everton Away −0.20
  19. West Ham United Home −0.14
  20. Manchester United Away +0.28
  21. Liverpool Away +0.21
  22. Brentford Home −0.09
  23. Arsenal Away +0.48
  24. Manchester United Home +0.28
  25. Nottingham Forest Home −0.14
  26. Aston Villa Away +0.01
  27. Crystal Palace Home −0.05
  28. Chelsea Away +0.09
  29. Fulham Away +0.02
  30. Burnley Home −0.69
  31. Sunderland Away −0.14
  32. Brighton & Hove Albion Home +0.20
  33. Tottenham Hotspur Away +0.03
  34. Leeds United Home −0.14
  35. Newcastle United Away −0.03
  36. Everton Home −0.20
  37. Bournemouth Away +0.16
  38. Manchester City Home +0.51

Last 5

−0.12 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 18 hardest of 20

  1. Burnley Away −0.69
  2. Fulham Home +0.02
  3. Brighton & Hove Albion Away +0.20
  4. Sunderland Home −0.14
  5. Tottenham Hotspur Home +0.03

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Wolverhampton shots and chance quality

Low volume, low quality. Wolverhampton take 9.7 shots a match (league 12.5) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #19 in Premier League for volume and #20 for quality. 64% of their shots come from inside the box (league 67%), and set pieces produce 37% of their npxG (league 29%).

Attack

Shot volume
9.7 shots per match
#19/20
Shot volume (shots per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
=1 Manchester City 15.7
=1 Manchester United 15.7
#3 Liverpool 15.5
#4 Arsenal 14.5
#5 Bournemouth 13.8
#6 Chelsea 13.4
#7 Brighton & Hove Albion 13.0
#8 Newcastle United 12.9
=9 Aston Villa 12.7
=9 Fulham 12.7
#11 Leeds United 12.6
#12 Nottingham Forest 12.5
#13 Crystal Palace 11.6
#14 Tottenham Hotspur 11.4
#15 Everton 11.0
#16 Brentford 10.7
#17 West Ham United 10.6
#18 Sunderland 10.4
#19 Wolverhampton 9.7
#20 Burnley 9.3
League avg
12.5
Total
369 shots from 38 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#20/20
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Brentford 0.13
#2 Chelsea 0.12
#3 Crystal Palace 0.12
#4 Manchester City 0.11
#5 Arsenal 0.11
#6 Bournemouth 0.11
#7 West Ham United 0.11
#8 Newcastle United 0.11
#9 Brighton & Hove Albion 0.11
#10 Everton 0.11
#11 Leeds United 0.10
#12 Manchester United 0.10
#13 Aston Villa 0.10
#14 Liverpool 0.10
#15 Tottenham Hotspur 0.10
#16 Sunderland 0.09
#17 Nottingham Forest 0.09
#18 Fulham 0.09
#19 Burnley 0.09
#20 Wolverhampton 0.09
League avg
0.11
Total
32.37 npxG from 369 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
13.9 shots per match
#16/20
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Arsenal 8.2
#2 Manchester City 9.7
#3 Chelsea 10.9
#4 Liverpool 11.4
#5 Manchester United 11.5
#6 Brighton & Hove Albion 11.7
#7 Crystal Palace 11.7
#8 Fulham 11.8
#9 Tottenham Hotspur 12.3
#10 Newcastle United 12.3
#11 Leeds United 12.5
#12 Bournemouth 12.6
#13 Aston Villa 12.9
=14 Brentford 13.3
=14 Nottingham Forest 13.3
#16 Wolverhampton 13.9
#17 Everton 14.0
#18 Sunderland 14.2
#19 West Ham United 14.9
#20 Burnley 16.7
League avg
12.5
Total
528 shots allowed from 38 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#7/20
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Arsenal 0.10
#2 West Ham United 0.10
#3 Brentford 0.10
#4 Sunderland 0.10
#5 Everton 0.10
#6 Nottingham Forest 0.10
#7 Wolverhampton 0.10
#8 Brighton & Hove Albion 0.10
#9 Newcastle United 0.10
#10 Manchester United 0.10
#11 Liverpool 0.10
#12 Tottenham Hotspur 0.11
#13 Leeds United 0.11
#14 Bournemouth 0.11
#15 Crystal Palace 0.11
#16 Burnley 0.11
#17 Fulham 0.11
#18 Aston Villa 0.11
#19 Manchester City 0.12
#20 Chelsea 0.12
League avg
0.11
Total
53.90 npxGA from 528 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

64% inside the box

League avg 67%

From 237 of 369 shots over 38 matches

Shots allowed, location

66% allowed inside the box

League avg 67%

From 349 of 528 shots allowed over 38 matches

Where the npxG comes from

63% open play · 37% set pieces

League avg 29% set pieces

From 12.0 of 32.3 npxG over 38 matches

Where the npxG allowed comes from

69% open play · 31% set pieces

League avg 29% set pieces

From 16.5 of 54.0 npxG allowed over 38 matches

How the shot figures are made →

Wolverhampton home and away xG

Wolverhampton per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 19 19
xG / match 1.09 0.79
xGA / match 1.50 1.57
xGD / match -0.40 -0.79
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.17 0.84

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Wolverhampton match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Away this season

Matches
19
xG / match
0.79
xGA / match
1.57
xGD / match
-0.79
Points
6 of 57
  1. Sun 24/05 Burnley A Best underlying xG 2.09 P xGA 0.98 xGD +1.11
  2. Sat 09/05 Brighton & Hove Albion A xG 0.49 xGA 1.62 xGD -1.13
  3. Sat 18/04 Leeds United A xG 0.57 xGA 2.82 P xGD -2.25
  4. Fri 10/04 West Ham United A xG 0.59 xGA 2.35 P xGD -1.76
  5. Mon 16/03 Brentford A xG 1.39 xGA 2.56 xGD -1.17
  6. Sun 22/02 Crystal Palace A xG 1.68 P xGA 1.67 xGD +0.01
  7. Wed 11/02 Nottingham Forest A xG 0.42 xGA 2.55 xGD -2.13
  8. Sat 24/01 Manchester City A xG 0.59 xGA 0.92 xGD -0.33
  9. Wed 07/01 Everton A xG 0.68 xGA 0.89 xGD -0.21
  10. Tue 30/12 Manchester United A xG 1.16 xGA 0.84 xGD +0.32
  11. Sat 27/12 Liverpool A xG 1.07 xGA 1.54 xGD -0.47
  12. Sat 13/12 Arsenal A xG 0.38 xGA 1.13 xGD -0.75
  13. Sun 30/11 Aston Villa A xG 0.49 xGA 0.94 xGD -0.45
  14. Sat 08/11 Chelsea A Weakest underlying xG 0.17 xGA 3.31 xGD -3.14
  15. Sat 01/11 Fulham A xG 0.24 xGA 1.39 xGD -1.15
  16. Sat 18/10 Sunderland A xG 0.83 xGA 0.65 xGD +0.18
  17. Sat 27/09 Tottenham Hotspur A xG 1.15 xGA 0.87 xGD +0.28
  18. Sat 13/09 Newcastle United A xG 0.50 xGA 1.55 xGD -1.05
  19. Sat 23/08 Bournemouth A xG 0.46 xGA 1.29 xGD -0.83

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.31. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Wolverhampton in Premier League

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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