xgEdge

Expected goals

NK Celje expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

PrvaLiga (Slovenia) · after 8 matches · updated 1 Oct

NK Celje's attacking and defensive expected goals in PrvaLiga (Slovenia) 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

NK Celje xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.59 xG per match
#3/10
Attack (xG per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 1.76
#2 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1.66
#3 NK Celje 1.59
#4 FC Koper 1.53
#5 NK Bravo 1.48
#6 NK Maribor 1.48
#7 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 1.44
#8 Kalcer Radomlje 1.31
#9 NŠ Mura 1.26
#10 Brinje Grosuplje 1.25
League avg
1.48
Total
12.75 8 matches
Defence
1.05 xGA per match
#2/10
Defence (xGA per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 NK Maribor 0.84
#2 NK Celje 1.05
#3 FC Koper 1.28
#4 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1.32
#5 NŠ Mura 1.39
#6 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 1.48
#7 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 1.70
#8 Brinje Grosuplje 1.77
#9 NK Bravo 1.92
#10 Kalcer Radomlje 1.96
League avg
1.48
Total
8.40 8 matches
xG difference
+0.54 xGD per match
#2/10
xG difference (xGD per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 NK Maribor +0.64
#2 NK Celje +0.54
#3 NK Olimpija Ljubljana +0.34
#4 FC Koper +0.25
#5 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 +0.05
#6 NK Aluminij Kidričevo -0.05
#7 NŠ Mura -0.13
#8 NK Bravo -0.44
#9 Brinje Grosuplje -0.52
#10 Kalcer Radomlje -0.65
League avg
0.00
Total
+4.35 8 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.78 xPts per match
#2/10
Expected points (xPts per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 NK Maribor 1.84
#2 NK Celje 1.78
#3 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1.61
#4 FC Koper 1.55
#5 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 1.37
#6 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 1.29
#7 NŠ Mura 1.22
#8 NK Bravo 1.06
#9 Brinje Grosuplje 1.06
#10 Kalcer Radomlje 0.99
League avg
1.37
Total
14.25 vs 12 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 8 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

Expected goals here are summed over 8 of 9 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

NK Celje's underlying numbers are among the best in PrvaLiga (Slovenia). They rank #2 for xG difference at +0.54 per match, from about average shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 9 goals are 3.75 below 12.75 xG, while 9 points are 5.25 below 14.25 xPts — both over the 8 matches with xG. After only 8 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.76 xG from penalties
9 12.75 -3.75 scored 3.75 fewer than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
11 8.40 +2.60 conceded 2.60 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
9 14.25 -5.25 5.25 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

NK Celje are 3.75 goals below their xG after 8 matches.

Goals
9
xG
12.75
Gap
-3.75
Fri 17/07 Sat 01/08 Sat 08/08 Sat 15/08 Sun 30/08 Sun 06/09 Sat 12/09 Sun 20/09 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +0.06 -0.29 -0.88 +0.01 -0.47 -2.58 -3.35 -3.75 +0.06 -0.35 -0.59 +0.89 -0.48 -2.11 -0.77 -0.40 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
NK Celje: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Fri 17/07 NŠ Mura 2 1.94 +0.06 +0.06
Sat 01/08 NK Maribor 1 1.35 -0.35 -0.29
Sat 08/08 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1 1.59 -0.59 -0.88
Sat 15/08 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 3 2.11 +0.89 +0.01
Sun 30/08 Brinje Grosuplje 1 1.48 -0.48 -0.47
Sun 06/09 FC Koper 0 2.11 -2.11 -2.58
Sat 12/09 NK Bravo 1 1.77 -0.77 -3.35
Sun 20/09 NŠ Mura 0 0.40 -0.40 -3.75

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

NK Celje xG trend

Current form +0.58 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 5 of 8 matches. The worst was against NK Maribor on Sat 01/08 (-0.09).

npxG · last 6
1.58
npxGA · last 6
1.00
-1 0 +1 +2 +0.22 Fri 17/07 -0.09 Sat 01/08 +1.15 Sat 08/08 +0.82 Sat 15/08 -0.08 Sun 30/08 +0.23 Sun 06/09 +1.35 Sat 12/09 -0.01 Sun 20/09 +0.45 season avg
NK Celje: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Fri 17/07 NŠ Mura 1.18 0.96 +0.22 +0.22
Sat 01/08 NK Maribor 1.35 1.44 -0.09 +0.07
Sat 08/08 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1.59 0.44 +1.15 +0.43
Sat 15/08 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 2.11 1.29 +0.82 +0.53
Sun 30/08 Brinje Grosuplje 1.48 1.56 -0.08 +0.40
Sun 06/09 FC Koper 2.11 1.88 +0.23 +0.38
Sat 12/09 NK Bravo 1.77 0.42 +1.35 +0.51
Sun 20/09 NŠ Mura 0.40 0.41 -0.01 +0.45

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.50 npxG and 1.05 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 2 hardest of 10 in PrvaLiga (Slovenia)
+0.05 xG vs league average
Over 9 league matches
Last 5
number 7 hardest of 10 in PrvaLiga (Slovenia)
−0.05 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.05 xG vs league average · over 9 matches · number 2 hardest of 10

  1. NŠ Mura Away +0.23
  2. NK Bravo Away −0.09
  3. FC Koper Home +0.15
  4. NK Aluminij Kidričevo Away −0.28
  5. Brinje Grosuplje Away −0.27
  6. NK Nafta Lendava 1903 Away −0.20
  7. NK Olimpija Ljubljana Home +0.25
  8. NK Maribor Home +0.38
  9. NŠ Mura Home +0.23

Last 5

−0.05 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 7 hardest of 10

  1. NŠ Mura Away +0.23
  2. NK Bravo Away −0.09
  3. FC Koper Home +0.15
  4. NK Aluminij Kidričevo Away −0.28
  5. Brinje Grosuplje Away −0.27

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

NK Celje shots and chance quality

Average volume, average quality. NK Celje take 12.1 shots a match (league 11.8) at 0.12 npxG a shot (league 0.12), #3 in PrvaLiga (Slovenia) for volume and #4 for quality. 62% of their shots come from inside the box (league 60%).

Attack

Shot volume
12.1 shots per match
#3/10
Shot volume (shots per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 14.9
#2 NK Maribor 13.8
#3 NK Celje 12.1
#4 NŠ Mura 12.1
#5 FC Koper 12.0
#6 NK Bravo 11.9
#7 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 11.4
#8 Kalcer Radomlje 10.9
#9 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 10.0
#10 Brinje Grosuplje 8.8
League avg
11.8
Total
97 shots from 8 matches
Chance quality
0.12 npxG per shot
#4/10
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 0.15
#2 Brinje Grosuplje 0.14
#3 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 0.14
#4 NK Celje 0.12
#5 FC Koper 0.12
#6 Kalcer Radomlje 0.11
#7 NK Bravo 0.11
#8 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 0.11
#9 NŠ Mura 0.10
#10 NK Maribor 0.10
League avg
0.12
Total
11.99 npxG from 97 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
9.9 shots per match
#3/10
Shots allowed (shots per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 NK Maribor 8.7
#2 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 9.6
#3 NK Celje 9.9
=4 Brinje Grosuplje 10.8
=4 NŠ Mura 10.8
#6 FC Koper 11.5
#7 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 12.1
#8 Kalcer Radomlje 12.8
#9 NK Bravo 14.6
#10 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 17.1
League avg
11.8
Total
79 shots allowed from 8 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#3/10
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 NK Maribor 0.10
#2 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 0.10
#3 NK Celje 0.11
#4 FC Koper 0.11
#5 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 0.11
#6 NŠ Mura 0.12
#7 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 0.12
#8 NK Bravo 0.13
#9 Kalcer Radomlje 0.15
#10 Brinje Grosuplje 0.16
League avg
0.12
Total
8.40 npxGA from 79 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

62% inside the box

League avg 60%

From 60 of 97 shots over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

58% allowed inside the box

League avg 60%

From 46 of 79 shots allowed over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

NK Celje home and away xG

NK Celje per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 5 4 with xG
xG / match 1.75 1.44
xGA / match 1.18 0.92
xGD / match +0.57 +0.52
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.82 1.74

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every NK Celje match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 5

Matches
5 4 with xG
xG / match
1.44
xGA / match
1.07
xGD / match
+0.37
Points
4 of 15
  1. Sun 20/09 NŠ Mura A xG 0.40 xGA 0.41 xGD -0.01
  2. Sat 12/09 NK Bravo A Against the chances xG 1.77 xGA 0.42 xGD +1.35
  3. Sun 06/09 FC Koper H xG 2.11 xGA 1.88 xGD +0.23
  4. Wed 02/09 NK Aluminij Kidričevo A
  5. Sun 30/08 Brinje Grosuplje A xG 1.48 xGA 1.56 xGD -0.08

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

NK Celje in PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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