NK Maribor 2:2 NK Aluminij Kidričevo: xG & match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 20:15

Full time

Match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

NK Maribor Home 2.91 xG

NK Aluminij Kidričevo Away 1.54 xG

22 NK Maribor had the better chances, but it finished level

NK Maribor were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 55%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was NK Maribor's attack: 2.91 xG against 1.80 projected (+1.11). NK Aluminij Kidričevo produced 1.54 xG against 1.00 projected (+0.54).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NK Maribor: 55%
Draw: 27% What happened
NK Aluminij Kidričevo: 18%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NK Maribor 1.80 2.91 +1.11

NK Aluminij Kidričevo 1.00 1.54 +0.54

NK Maribor produced 1.11 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NK Maribor NK Aluminij Kidričevo

Shots: 21; 13
On target: 11; 9
Inside the box: 12; 8
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.12

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NK Maribor

1.37 xG created 0.68 xGA

W 0.40 created, 0.54 conceded against FC Koper
D 0.97 created, 0.46 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
W 1.55 created, 0.97 conceded against NK Bravo
W 1.99 created, 0.52 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
D 1.38 created, 0.58 conceded against NŠ Mura
W 1.91 created, 0.99 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje

NK Aluminij Kidričevo

1.62 xG created 1.25 xGA

D 1.58 created, 1.01 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
W 1.28 created, 1.02 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje
W 3.53 created, 1.20 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
L 0.22 created, 0.87 conceded against FC Koper
D 1.19 created, 1.37 conceded against NK Bravo
W 1.89 created, 2.01 conceded against NŠ Mura

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

NK Maribor: 2 won · 2 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged4 won2 lost

Won
Won
Lost
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NK Maribor against NK Aluminij Kidričevo before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
NK Aluminij Kidričevo to score	1.80	+18.7%	Won
NK Aluminij Kidričevo 2+ goals	4.50	+18.3%	Won
NK Aluminij Kidričevo to win	6.50	+16.2%	Lost
Draw	4.33	+15.8%	Won
Both teams to score	1.91	+10.9%	Won
NK Maribor at most 1 goal	2.25	+0.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Maribor	55.4%	65.0%	−9.6 pp	1.81
Draw	26.7%	21.0%	+5.7 pp	3.74
NK Aluminij Kidričevo	17.9%	14.0%	+3.9 pp	5.59

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Maribor to score	85.7%	84.4%	+1.3 pp	1.17
NK Maribor not to score	14.3%	15.6%	−1.3 pp	7.00
NK Aluminij Kidričevo to score	65.9%	51.5%	+14.5 pp	1.52
NK Aluminij Kidričevo not to score	34.1%	48.5%	−14.5 pp	2.94
Both teams to score	58.1%	48.5%	+9.5 pp	1.72
Both teams not to score	41.9%	51.5%	−9.5 pp	2.38
NK Maribor 2+ goals	55.5%	58.9%	−3.4 pp	1.80
NK Maribor at most 1 goal	44.5%	41.1%	+3.4 pp	2.25
NK Aluminij Kidričevo 2+ goals	26.3%	20.6%	+5.7 pp	3.81
NK Aluminij Kidričevo at most 1 goal	73.7%	79.4%	−5.7 pp	1.36
Over 1.5 goals	80.7%	78.3%	+2.4 pp	1.24
Under 1.5 goals	19.3%	21.7%	−2.4 pp	5.19
Over 2.5 goals	54.4%	56.3%	−1.9 pp	1.84
Under 2.5 goals	45.6%	43.7%	+1.9 pp	2.19

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NK Maribor sample: 20 matches
NK Aluminij Kidričevo sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.