Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 19:45
14d 18h to kick-offBaltika Kaliningrad – FC Rostov
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Baltika Kaliningrad
- 45%
- Draw
- 31%
- FC Rostov
- 23%
| Baltika Kaliningrad | Draw | FC Rostov | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.20 | 3.19 | 4.29 |
- Total goals
- 2.40
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Baltika Kaliningrad
45% Baltika Kaliningrad to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 6th
- Baltika Kaliningrad attack v FC Rostov defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 13th
- Baltika Kaliningrad defence v FC Rostov attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.58 vs -0.54
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.41 – 0.99
- Baltika Kaliningrad v FC Rostov
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Baltika Kaliningrad | FC Rostov |
|---|---|---|
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.58 | -0.54 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Baltika Kaliningrad clean sheet
- 35%
- Baltika Kaliningrad 2+ goals
- 42%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.1%
- 2:1
- 10.6%
- 1:0
- 10.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Baltika Kaliningrad sample
- 20 matches
- FC Rostov sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Baltika Kaliningrad
- 0 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Rostov
- 0 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.