Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 15:30
13d 14h to kick-offDinamo Makhachkala – Akron Togliatti
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Dinamo Makhachkala
- 48%
- Draw
- 29%
- Akron Togliatti
- 23%
| Dinamo Makhachkala | Draw | Akron Togliatti | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.07 | 3.48 | 4.37 |
- Total goals
- 2.75
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Dinamo Makhachkala
48% Dinamo Makhachkala to win
- Attack
- 15th vs 16th
- Dinamo Makhachkala attack v Akron Togliatti defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 11th
- Dinamo Makhachkala defence v Akron Togliatti attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.15 vs -0.65
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.64 – 1.11
- Dinamo Makhachkala v Akron Togliatti
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Dinamo Makhachkala | Akron Togliatti |
|---|---|---|
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.15 | -0.65 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Dinamo Makhachkala clean sheet
- 30%
- Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score: no
- 40%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.5%
- 2:1
- 11.3%
- 2:0
- 8.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Dinamo Makhachkala sample
- 20 matches
- Akron Togliatti sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Dinamo Makhachkala
- 0 matches
- Away xG sample · Akron Togliatti
- 0 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.