Rodina Moscow 1:1 Rubin Kazan: xG & match report · Russian Premier League

Wednesday, 16/09/2026 at 17:30

Full time

Match report · Russian Premier League

Rodina Moscow Home

Rubin Kazan Away

Rodina Moscow were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. It finished 1–1.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Rodina Moscow: 44%
Draw: 29% What happened
Rubin Kazan: 26%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 1 match in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Rodina Moscow

2.51 xG created 2.62 xGA

L 2.51 created, 2.62 conceded against Krylya Sovetov Samara

Rubin Kazan

1.26 xG created 1.39 xGA

D 1.94 created, 0.65 conceded against Akron Togliatti
W 1.65 created, 1.43 conceded against Dynamo Moscow
D 1.88 created, 1.18 conceded against CSKA Moscow
W 0.30 created, 0.44 conceded against Baltika Kaliningrad
L 0.97 created, 2.17 conceded against FC Spartak Moscow
L 0.79 created, 2.49 conceded against FK Krasnodar

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost

Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Rodina Moscow against Rubin Kazan before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Rodina Moscow to win	3.01	+33.7%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	2.12	+14.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Rodina Moscow	44.4%	31.5%	+12.9 pp	2.25
Draw	29.3%	29.9%	−0.6 pp	3.41
Rubin Kazan	26.3%	38.6%	−12.3 pp	3.81

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Over 2.5 goals	53.8%	44.8%	+8.9 pp	1.86
Under 2.5 goals	46.2%	55.2%	−8.9 pp	2.16

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Rodina Moscow sample: 1 match
Rubin Kazan sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Rodina Moscow has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.