xgEdge

Expected goals

Aberdeen expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Scottish Premiership · after 7 matches · updated 4 Oct

Aberdeen's attacking and defensive expected goals in Scottish Premiership 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Aberdeen xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.00 xG per match
#10/12
Attack (xG per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Celtic 2.77
#2 Rangers 2.03
#3 Hibernian 1.75
#4 Heart of Midlothian 1.62
#5 Dundee United 1.56
#6 St. Mirren 1.44
#7 Motherwell 1.36
#8 St. Johnstone 1.30
#9 Dundee FC 1.28
#10 Aberdeen 1.00
#11 Falkirk FC 0.90
#12 Kilmarnock 0.89
League avg
1.49
Total
7.00 7 matches
Defence
1.57 xGA per match
#9/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Celtic 0.89
#2 Rangers 1.00
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.26
#4 Dundee United 1.44
#5 St. Johnstone 1.52
#6 Hibernian 1.55
#7 Dundee FC 1.56
#8 St. Mirren 1.57
#9 Aberdeen 1.57
#10 Motherwell 1.58
#11 Falkirk FC 1.66
#12 Kilmarnock 2.28
League avg
1.49
Total
11.00 7 matches
xG difference
-0.57 xGD per match
#10/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Celtic +1.88
#2 Rangers +1.03
#3 Heart of Midlothian +0.35
#4 Hibernian +0.20
#5 Dundee United +0.11
#6 St. Mirren -0.12
#7 Motherwell -0.22
#8 St. Johnstone -0.23
#9 Dundee FC -0.28
#10 Aberdeen -0.57
#11 Falkirk FC -0.76
#12 Kilmarnock -1.39
League avg
0.00
Total
-4.00 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.96 xPts per match
#10/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Celtic 2.35
#2 Rangers 2.01
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.68
#4 Hibernian 1.54
#5 Dundee United 1.43
#6 Motherwell 1.37
#7 St. Mirren 1.33
#8 Dundee FC 1.24
#9 St. Johnstone 1.20
#10 Aberdeen 0.96
#11 Falkirk FC 0.86
#12 Kilmarnock 0.71
League avg
1.39
Total
6.71 vs 8 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Aberdeen's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Scottish Premiership. They rank #10 for xG difference at -0.57 per match, from low shot volume and low chance quality. Their 7 goals are level with 7.00 xG, while 8 points are 1.29 above 6.71 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.12 xG from penalties
7 7.00 +0.00 level with xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
8 11.00 -3.00 conceded 3.00 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
8 6.71 +1.29 1.29 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Aberdeen are level with their xG after 7 matches.

Goals
7
xG
7.00
Gap
+0.00
Sat 01/08 Sat 08/08 Sun 30/08 Wed 02/09 Sat 05/09 Tue 15/09 Sat 19/09 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.66 -1.36 -1.81 -2.47 -3.32 -0.23 +0.00 -0.66 -0.70 -0.45 -0.66 -0.85 +3.09 +0.23 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Aberdeen: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 01/08 Heart of Midlothian 2 2.66 -0.66 -0.66
Sat 08/08 Dundee FC 0 0.70 -0.70 -1.36
Sun 30/08 Rangers 0 0.45 -0.45 -1.81
Wed 02/09 Celtic 0 0.66 -0.66 -2.47
Sat 05/09 Kilmarnock 0 0.85 -0.85 -3.32
Tue 15/09 Motherwell 4 0.91 +3.09 -0.23
Sat 19/09 Hibernian 1 0.77 +0.23 +0.00

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Aberdeen xG trend

Current form -0.62 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 3 of 7 matches. The worst was against Celtic on Wed 02/09 (-1.81).

npxG · last 6
0.73
npxGA · last 6
1.35
-2 -1 0 +1 +0.19 Sat 01/08 -1.51 Sat 08/08 -0.60 Sun 30/08 -1.81 Wed 02/09 -0.08 Sat 05/09 +0.15 Tue 15/09 +0.13 Sat 19/09 -0.50 season avg
Aberdeen: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 01/08 Heart of Midlothian 1.53 1.34 +0.19 +0.19
Sat 08/08 Dundee FC 0.71 2.22 -1.51 -0.66
Sun 30/08 Rangers 0.45 1.05 -0.60 -0.64
Wed 02/09 Celtic 0.66 2.47 -1.81 -0.93
Sat 05/09 Kilmarnock 0.85 0.93 -0.08 -0.76
Tue 15/09 Motherwell 0.91 0.76 +0.15 -0.61
Sat 19/09 Hibernian 0.77 0.64 +0.13 -0.50

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.84 npxG and 1.34 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 2 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
+0.13 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 2 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
+0.24 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.13 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 2 hardest of 12

  1. Hibernian Away −0.03
  2. Motherwell Away +0.05
  3. Kilmarnock Home −0.52
  4. Celtic Away +0.82
  5. Rangers Home +0.85
  6. Dundee FC Away −0.48
  7. Heart of Midlothian Home +0.18

Last 5

+0.24 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 2 hardest of 12

  1. Hibernian Away −0.03
  2. Motherwell Away +0.05
  3. Kilmarnock Home −0.52
  4. Celtic Away +0.82
  5. Rangers Home +0.85

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Aberdeen shots and chance quality

Low volume, low quality. Aberdeen take 9.9 shots a match (league 14.2) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.10), =11 in Scottish Premiership for volume and #10 for quality. 59% of their shots come from inside the box (league 68%), and set pieces produce 48% of their npxG (league 22%).

Attack

Shot volume
9.9 shots per match
=11/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
=1 Celtic 20.0
=1 Rangers 20.0
#3 Hibernian 16.9
#4 Heart of Midlothian 16.0
#5 Dundee United 15.9
#6 Motherwell 14.6
#7 St. Mirren 14.3
#8 Dundee FC 11.3
#9 Falkirk FC 10.7
#10 St. Johnstone 10.6
=11 Aberdeen 9.9
=11 Kilmarnock 9.9
League avg
14.2
Total
69 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#10/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Celtic 0.14
#2 St. Johnstone 0.12
#3 Dundee FC 0.10
#4 Kilmarnock 0.09
#5 St. Mirren 0.09
#6 Rangers 0.09
#7 Dundee United 0.09
#8 Heart of Midlothian 0.09
#9 Falkirk FC 0.09
#10 Aberdeen 0.09
#11 Hibernian 0.08
#12 Motherwell 0.08
League avg
0.10
Total
5.88 npxG from 69 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
16.7 shots per match
#10/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Rangers 9.1
#2 Heart of Midlothian 9.7
#3 Celtic 11.1
#4 Hibernian 12.4
#5 St. Johnstone 12.6
#6 St. Mirren 14.9
#7 Falkirk FC 15.0
#8 Motherwell 15.1
#9 Dundee United 15.7
#10 Aberdeen 16.7
#11 Kilmarnock 18.4
#12 Dundee FC 19.0
League avg
14.2
Total
117 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.08 npxGA per shot
#3/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Celtic 0.07
#2 Dundee FC 0.08
#3 Aberdeen 0.08
#4 Motherwell 0.08
#5 Dundee United 0.08
#6 Rangers 0.10
#7 St. Mirren 0.10
#8 Hibernian 0.11
#9 Falkirk FC 0.11
#10 Heart of Midlothian 0.11
#11 Kilmarnock 0.12
#12 St. Johnstone 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
9.41 npxGA from 117 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

59% inside the box

League avg 68%

From 41 of 69 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

59% allowed inside the box

League avg 68%

From 69 of 117 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

52% open play · 48% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 2.8 of 5.9 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

78% open play · 22% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 2.1 of 9.4 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Aberdeen home and away xG

Aberdeen per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 3 4
xG / match 1.32 0.76
xGA / match 1.37 1.72
xGD / match -0.05 -0.96
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.28 0.72

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Aberdeen match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 5

Matches
5
xG / match
0.73
xGA / match
1.49
xGD / match
-0.76
Points
5 of 15
  1. Sat 19/09 Hibernian A xG 0.77 xGA 1.43 P xGD -0.66
  2. Tue 15/09 Motherwell A Best underlying xG 0.91 xGA 0.77 xGD +0.14
  3. Sat 05/09 Kilmarnock H xG 0.85 xGA 0.93 xGD -0.08
  4. Wed 02/09 Celtic A Weakest underlying xG 0.66 xGA 2.47 xGD -1.81
  5. Sun 30/08 Rangers H xG 0.45 xGA 1.84 P xGD -1.39

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Aberdeen in Scottish Premiership

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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