Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00
18d 20h to kick-offSt. Mirren – Dundee FC
Model updated 5 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- St. Mirren
- 47%
- Draw
- 30%
- Dundee FC
- 23%
| St. Mirren | Draw | Dundee FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.12 | 3.30 | 4.42 |
- Total goals
- 2.51
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans St. Mirren
47% St. Mirren to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 11th
- St. Mirren attack v Dundee FC defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 11th
- St. Mirren defence v Dundee FC attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.30 vs +0.02
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.50 – 1.01
- St. Mirren v Dundee FC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | St. Mirren | Dundee FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.44 · 6th | 1.28 · 9th |
| xGA / match | 1.57 · 8th | (better) 1.56 · 7th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.12 · 6th | -0.28 · 9th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.33 · 7th | 1.24 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.30 | (better) +0.02 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- St. Mirren clean sheet
- 34%
- St. Mirren 2+ goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.6%
- 2:1
- 10.9%
- 1:0
- 9.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- St. Mirren sample
- 20 matches
- Dundee FC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · St. Mirren
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Dundee FC
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.