Value index
Today's free value picks
One combination a day, built from the picks the model rates likeliest — one from each match, priced in the 1.20–2.20 range. Picks are ranked by their chance of coming in rather than by value, but one the price already has the better of is left out. All of it is free.
Fri 21/08 Friday, 21/08/2026
Figures are in stakes, at one stake a slip. A won slip pays the odds of the legs that were actually played: a postponed match drops out of the combination rather than sinking it, and the slip is repriced without it. A slip that was voided outright is left out of both the record and the profit, and a slip still running is not counted until it settles.
The total probability is the product of the individual ones (P = P1 × P2 × … × Pn), which assumes the outcomes are independent. They are not quite — matches in the same league share one strength estimate — so that figure is mildly optimistic. The probabilities come from the model (Poisson + Dixon-Coles on top of xG), not from the bookmaker. Picks are ranked by their chance of coming in rather than by value, but a pick priced worse than the model rates it is left out: a combination multiplies the edge on every leg it carries, so one leg that does not pay for itself drags down every other one beside it.
A slip comes in only if every pick does. One losing pick sinks the whole combination, so a slip reaches a final status before all of its matches have been played. A postponed or cancelled match does not sink the slip — it drops out of it.