xgEdge

Expected goals

Olympiacos FC expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Super League Greece · after 5 matches · updated 1 Oct

Olympiacos FC's attacking and defensive expected goals in Super League Greece 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Olympiacos FC xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.81 xG per match
#4/14
Attack (xG per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Panathinaikos 2.13
#2 AEK Athens 2.02
#3 PAOK 1.85
#4 Olympiacos FC 1.81
#5 Aris Thessaloniki 1.52
#6 AE Kifisia 1.33
#7 PS Kalamata 1.26
#8 Asteras Aktor 1.04
#9 OFI Crete 1.04
#10 NPS Volos 0.93
#11 Atromitos Athens 0.91
#12 Panetolikos 0.89
#13 APO Levadiakos 0.62
#14 Iraklis 1908 0.57
League avg
1.27
Total
9.05 5 matches
Defence
0.56 xGA per match
#1/14
Defence (xGA per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Olympiacos FC 0.56
#2 AE Kifisia 0.70
#3 Panathinaikos 0.81
#4 AEK Athens 0.95
#5 OFI Crete 1.18
#6 PAOK 1.20
#7 Asteras Aktor 1.24
#8 APO Levadiakos 1.41
#9 Iraklis 1908 1.45
#10 Atromitos Athens 1.53
#11 NPS Volos 1.53
#12 PS Kalamata 1.57
#13 Panetolikos 1.59
#14 Aris Thessaloniki 1.81
League avg
1.27
Total
2.78 5 matches
xG difference
+1.25 xGD per match
#2/14
xG difference (xGD per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Panathinaikos +1.31
#2 Olympiacos FC +1.25
#3 AEK Athens +1.07
#4 PAOK +0.65
#5 AE Kifisia +0.63
#6 OFI Crete -0.14
#7 Asteras Aktor -0.20
#8 Aris Thessaloniki -0.28
#9 PS Kalamata -0.31
#10 NPS Volos -0.60
#11 Atromitos Athens -0.62
#12 Panetolikos -0.70
#13 APO Levadiakos -0.79
#14 Iraklis 1908 -0.88
League avg
0.00
Total
+6.27 5 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
2.25 xPts per match
#1/14
Expected points (xPts per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Olympiacos FC 2.25
#2 Panathinaikos 2.17
#3 AEK Athens 1.96
#4 AE Kifisia 1.92
#5 PAOK 1.88
#6 Aris Thessaloniki 1.39
#7 Asteras Aktor 1.22
#8 OFI Crete 1.22
#9 PS Kalamata 1.20
#10 Atromitos Athens 1.02
#11 Panetolikos 1.02
#12 NPS Volos 0.94
#13 APO Levadiakos 0.71
#14 Iraklis 1908 0.65
League avg
1.38
Total
11.25 vs 10 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 5 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Olympiacos FC's underlying numbers are among the best in Super League Greece. They rank #2 for xG difference at +1.25 per match, built on the league's highest shot volume rather than low chance quality. Their 4 goals are 5.05 below 9.05 xG, while 10 points are 1.25 below 11.25 xPts. After only 5 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.56 xG from penalties
4 9.05 -5.05 scored 5.05 fewer than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
2 2.78 -0.78 conceded 0.78 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
10 11.25 -1.25 1.25 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Olympiacos FC are 5.05 goals below their xG after 5 matches.

Goals
4
xG
9.05
Gap
-5.05
Sat 22/08 Sun 30/08 Sat 05/09 Sat 12/09 Sun 20/09 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -2.17 -2.87 -3.49 -4.88 -5.05 -2.17 -0.70 -0.62 -1.39 -0.17 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Olympiacos FC: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 22/08 Atromitos Athens 1 3.17 -2.17 -2.17
Sun 30/08 Asteras Aktor 1 1.70 -0.70 -2.87
Sat 05/09 NPS Volos 1 1.62 -0.62 -3.49
Sat 12/09 OFI Crete 0 1.39 -1.39 -4.88
Sun 20/09 APO Levadiakos 1 1.17 -0.17 -5.05

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Olympiacos FC xG trend

Current form +0.94 npxGD per match

All 5 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 5 of 5 matches.

npxG · last 5
1.50
npxGA · last 5
0.56
-1 0 +1 +2 +3 +2.09 Sat 22/08 +0.87 Sun 30/08 +0.42 Sat 05/09 +0.52 Sat 12/09 +0.80 Sun 20/09 +0.94 season avg
Olympiacos FC: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 22/08 Atromitos Athens 2.39 0.30 +2.09 +2.09
Sun 30/08 Asteras Aktor 1.71 0.84 +0.87 +1.48
Sat 05/09 NPS Volos 0.83 0.41 +0.42 +1.13
Sat 12/09 OFI Crete 1.39 0.87 +0.52 +0.97
Sun 20/09 APO Levadiakos 1.17 0.37 +0.80 +0.94

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.50 npxG and 0.56 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 14 hardest of 14 in Super League Greece
−0.20 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.20 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 14 hardest of 14

  1. APO Levadiakos Away −0.21
  2. OFI Crete Home −0.22
  3. NPS Volos Away −0.28
  4. Asteras Aktor Away −0.20
  5. Atromitos Athens Home −0.10

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Olympiacos FC shots and chance quality

High volume, low quality. Olympiacos FC take 19.2 shots a match (league 12.5) at 0.08 npxG a shot (league 0.09), #1 in Super League Greece for volume and #9 for quality. 73% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 18% of their npxG (league 23%).

Attack

Shot volume
19.2 shots per match
#1/14
Shot volume (shots per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Olympiacos FC 19.2
#2 Panathinaikos 18.0
#3 AEK Athens 17.2
#4 Aris Thessaloniki 16.2
#5 PAOK 12.2
=6 Asteras Aktor 11.6
=6 Atromitos Athens 11.6
=6 PS Kalamata 11.6
#9 AE Kifisia 11.5
#10 NPS Volos 11.2
#11 OFI Crete 10.8
#12 APO Levadiakos 9.2
#13 Panetolikos 8.8
#14 Iraklis 1908 7.8
League avg
12.5
Total
96 shots from 5 matches
Chance quality
0.08 npxG per shot
#9/14
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Panetolikos 0.13
#2 PAOK 0.13
#3 PS Kalamata 0.11
#4 AEK Athens 0.11
#5 AE Kifisia 0.10
#6 Panathinaikos 0.09
#7 OFI Crete 0.08
#8 NPS Volos 0.08
#9 Olympiacos FC 0.08
#10 Asteras Aktor 0.08
#11 Aris Thessaloniki 0.08
#12 Atromitos Athens 0.07
#13 Iraklis 1908 0.07
#14 APO Levadiakos 0.07
League avg
0.09
Total
7.49 npxG from 96 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
9.0 shots per match
#3/14
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 AE Kifisia 8.3
#2 Panathinaikos 8.7
#3 Olympiacos FC 9.0
#4 AEK Athens 10.6
#5 Aris Thessaloniki 11.4
#6 NPS Volos 12.4
#7 Asteras Aktor 12.6
#8 APO Levadiakos 13.0
#9 PAOK 13.2
#10 Atromitos Athens 13.6
#11 OFI Crete 14.0
#12 Panetolikos 14.5
#13 PS Kalamata 14.8
#14 Iraklis 1908 17.6
League avg
12.5
Total
45 shots allowed from 5 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.06 npxGA per shot
#1/14
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Olympiacos FC 0.06
#2 OFI Crete 0.07
#3 Iraklis 1908 0.07
#4 PAOK 0.07
#5 AE Kifisia 0.09
#6 Panetolikos 0.09
#7 NPS Volos 0.09
#8 Atromitos Athens 0.09
#9 AEK Athens 0.09
#10 PS Kalamata 0.10
#11 Asteras Aktor 0.10
#12 APO Levadiakos 0.10
#13 Panathinaikos 0.13
#14 Aris Thessaloniki 0.15
League avg
0.09
Total
2.79 npxGA from 45 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

73% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 70 of 96 shots over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

67% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 30 of 45 shots allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

82% open play · 18% set pieces

League avg 23% set pieces

From 1.3 of 7.4 npxG over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

71% open play · 29% set pieces

League avg 23% set pieces

From 0.8 of 2.8 npxG allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Olympiacos FC home and away xG

Olympiacos FC per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home only 2 matches with xG Away
Matches 2 3
xG / match 2.28 1.50
xGA / match 0.59 0.54
xGD / match +1.69 +0.96
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.35 2.18

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Olympiacos FC match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

At home this season

Matches
2
xG / match
2.28
xGA / match
0.59
xGD / match
+1.69
Points
3 of 6
  1. Sat 12/09 OFI Crete H xG 1.39 xGA 0.87 xGD +0.52
  2. Sat 22/08 Atromitos Athens H xG 3.17 P xGA 0.30 xGD +2.87

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.17. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Olympiacos FC in Super League Greece

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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