Monday, 26/10/2026 at 17:00
22d 17h to kick-offBeşiktaş – Başakşehir FK
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Beşiktaş
- 60%
- Draw
- 25%
- Başakşehir FK
- 14%
| Beşiktaş | Draw | Başakşehir FK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.66 | 3.97 | 6.93 |
- Total goals
- 2.80
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 56%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Beşiktaş
60% Beşiktaş to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 15th
- Beşiktaş attack v Başakşehir FK defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 6th
- Beşiktaş defence v Başakşehir FK attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.19 vs -0.25
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.90 – 0.90
- Beşiktaş v Başakşehir FK
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Beşiktaş | Başakşehir FK |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.85 · 5th | 1.63 · 7th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.66 · 1st | 1.88 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.19 · 2nd | -0.25 · 11th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.23 · 1st | 1.40 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.19 | -0.25 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Beşiktaş clean sheet
- 38%
- Beşiktaş 2+ goals
- 59%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score: no
- 44%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.9%
- 2:1
- 11.7%
- 2:0
- 11.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Beşiktaş sample
- 20 matches
- Başakşehir FK sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Beşiktaş
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Başakşehir FK
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.