Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 14:00
26d 8h to kick-offKocaelispor – Çaykur Rizespor
Model updated 5 October, 06:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Kocaelispor
- 36%
- Draw
- 33%
- Çaykur Rizespor
- 31%
| Kocaelispor | Draw | Çaykur Rizespor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.75 | 3.07 | 3.21 |
- Total goals
- 2.38
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score
- 54%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Kocaelispor
36% Kocaelispor to win
- Attack
- 15th vs 13th
- Kocaelispor attack v Çaykur Rizespor defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 8th
- Kocaelispor defence v Çaykur Rizespor attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.37 vs +0.12
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.24 – 1.14
- Kocaelispor v Çaykur Rizespor
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Kocaelispor | Çaykur Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.04 · 15th | (better) 1.43 · 8th |
| xGA / match | 1.41 · 9th | (better) 1.31 · 8th |
| xGD / match | -0.37 · 14th | (better) +0.12 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 1.13 · 13th | (better) 1.54 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.37 | (better) +0.12 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Kocaelispor clean sheet
- 29%
- Kocaelispor 2+ goals
- 36%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score: no
- 46%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.8%
- 0:0
- 9.6%
- 2:1
- 9.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Kocaelispor sample
- 20 matches
- Çaykur Rizespor sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Kocaelispor
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Çaykur Rizespor
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.