CFR 1907 Cluj 2:2 FC Dinamo București: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

CFR 1907 Cluj Home 1.02 xG

FC Dinamo București Away 1.40 xG

22 FC Dinamo București had the better chances, but it finished level

FC Dinamo București were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was CFR 1907 Cluj's attack: 1.02 xG against 1.41 projected (−0.39).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

CFR 1907 Cluj: 31%
Draw: 28% What happened
FC Dinamo București: 41%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1.41 1.02 -0.39

FC Dinamo București 1.61 1.40 -0.21

CFR 1907 Cluj produced 0.39 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

CFR 1907 Cluj FC Dinamo București

Shots: 10; 24
On target: 4; 7
Inside the box: 5; 13
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.06

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.60 xG created 1.58 xGA

W 2.02 created, 0.96 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
D 0.53 created, 1.77 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
L 1.89 created, 2.41 conceded against Sepsi OSK
W 3.62 created, 0.92 conceded against FC Botoșani
W 0.78 created, 1.80 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
L 0.73 created, 1.60 conceded against UTA Arad

FC Dinamo București

2.64 xG created 0.87 xGA

D 1.78 created, 0.91 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
W 3.26 created, 0.68 conceded against FCSB
W 2.25 created, 0.78 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
W 2.74 created, 1.42 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
W 1.95 created, 0.97 conceded against Sepsi OSK
W 3.85 created, 0.44 conceded against FC Botoșani

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

CFR 1907 Cluj: 1 won · 2 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 qualified edges flagged5 won1 lost

Won
Lost
Won
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on CFR 1907 Cluj against FC Dinamo București before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals	3.25	+37.2%	Won
CFR 1907 Cluj to win	3.90	+21.2%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.73	+14.3%	Won
CFR 1907 Cluj to score	1.44	+13.1%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.80	+8.0%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.25	+5.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
CFR 1907 Cluj	31.1%	22.9%	+8.2 pp	3.22
Draw	28.3%	25.5%	+2.8 pp	3.54
FC Dinamo București	40.6%	51.6%	−11.0 pp	2.46

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
CFR 1907 Cluj to score	78.3%	64.5%	+13.8 pp	1.28
CFR 1907 Cluj not to score	21.7%	35.5%	−13.8 pp	4.61
FC Dinamo București to score	82.5%	81.1%	+1.4 pp	1.21
FC Dinamo București not to score	17.5%	18.9%	−1.4 pp	5.72
Both teams to score	66.2%	53.7%	+12.5 pp	1.51
Both teams not to score	33.8%	46.3%	−12.5 pp	2.96
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals	42.2%	29.1%	+13.1 pp	2.37
CFR 1907 Cluj at most 1 goal	57.8%	70.9%	−13.1 pp	1.73
FC Dinamo București 2+ goals	49.5%	50.0%	−0.5 pp	2.02
FC Dinamo București at most 1 goal	50.5%	50.0%	+0.5 pp	1.98
Over 1.5 goals	84.3%	75.0%	+9.3 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	15.7%	25.0%	−9.3 pp	6.36
Over 2.5 goals	60.0%	52.6%	+7.3 pp	1.67
Under 2.5 goals	40.0%	47.4%	−7.3 pp	2.50

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
CFR 1907 Cluj sample: 20 matches
FC Dinamo București sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.