Friday, 09/10/2026 at 20:00
5d 20h to kick-offSepsi OSK – FC Dinamo București
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 1 October, 10:24
What the model expects
- Sepsi OSK
- 25%
- Draw
- 27%
- FC Dinamo București
- 48%
| Sepsi OSK | Draw | FC Dinamo București | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.98 | 3.67 | 2.10 |
- Total goals
- 3.04
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 2 outcomes.
-
Sepsi OSK
- Model
- 25.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 25.3%
- Probability gap
- −0.2 pp
- Edge
- −9.6%
- Fair odds
- 3.98
- Market odds
- 3.60 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.18
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.8%
-
Draw
- Model
- 27.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 26.8%
- Probability gap
- +0.4 pp
- Edge
- −7.4%
- Fair odds
- 3.67
- Market odds
- 3.40 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.86
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.8%
-
FC Dinamo București
- Model
- 47.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 47.9%
- Probability gap
- −0.3 pp
- Edge
- −9.4%
- Fair odds
- 2.10
- Market odds
- 1.90 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.20
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.8%
Outcomes with value
Over 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Match result
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans FC Dinamo București
48% FC Dinamo București to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 12th
- FC Dinamo București attack v Sepsi OSK defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 14th
- FC Dinamo București defence v Sepsi OSK attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.92 vs -0.56
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.28 – 1.77
- Sepsi OSK v FC Dinamo București
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Sepsi OSK | FC Dinamo București |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.19 · 14th | (better) 2.17 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.73 · 10th | (better) 1.15 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | -0.54 · 13th | (better) +1.02 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.10 · 12th | (better) 2.04 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.56 | (better) +0.92 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- FC Dinamo București clean sheet
- 25%
- FC Dinamo București 2+ goals
- 55%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.0%
- 1:2
- 10.9%
- 2:1
- 7.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sepsi OSK sample
- 10 matches
- FC Dinamo București sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Sepsi OSK
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Dinamo București
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 2 days ago · over a day old
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.