Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 15:00
32d 8h to kick-offFC Argeș Pitești – FC Dinamo București
Model updated 6 October, 06:58 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Argeș Pitești
- 28%
- Draw
- 31%
- FC Dinamo București
- 41%
| FC Argeș Pitești | Draw | FC Dinamo București | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.59 | 3.20 | 2.44 |
- Total goals
- 2.51
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Dinamo București
41% FC Dinamo București to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 4th
- FC Dinamo București attack v FC Argeș Pitești defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 15th
- FC Dinamo București defence v FC Argeș Pitești attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.92 vs 0.00
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.13 – 1.38
- FC Argeș Pitești v FC Dinamo București
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Argeș Pitești | FC Dinamo București |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.18 · 15th | (better) 2.17 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.21 · 4th | (better) 1.15 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | -0.03 · 8th | (better) +1.02 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.37 · 10th | (better) 2.04 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.00 | (better) +0.92 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- FC Dinamo București clean sheet
- 30%
- FC Dinamo București 2+ goals
- 41%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.0%
- 1:2
- 10.3%
- 0:1
- 9.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Argeș Pitești sample
- 20 matches
- FC Dinamo București sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Argeș Pitești
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Dinamo București
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 06:58
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.