Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 15:00
Full timeFC Farul Constanța 4:3 SC Oțelul Galați
FC Farul Constanța were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 4–3. The biggest difference was SC Oțelul Galați's attack: 1.62 xG against 1.21 projected (+0.41).
The model against the result
- FC Farul Constanța
- 53% What happened
- Draw
- 26%
- SC Oțelul Galați
- 21%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
SC Oțelul Galați produced 0.41 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 10
- 21
- On target
- 4
- 8
- Inside the box
- 5
- 13
- xG per shot
- 0.18
- 0.08
Recent form
1.61 xG created 1.76 xGA
- D 2.25 created, 2.32 conceded against FC Botoșani
- D 1.77 created, 0.53 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
- W 2.07 created, 1.98 conceded against UTA Arad
- L 1.42 created, 2.74 conceded against FC Dinamo București
- W 1.37 created, 1.64 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- L 0.78 created, 1.37 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
1.67 xG created 2.20 xGA
- D 2.65 created, 1.96 conceded against FC Voluntari
- L 0.48 created, 3.19 conceded against FC Rapid București
- L 0.20 created, 1.78 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
- L 2.10 created, 2.59 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
- L 0.42 created, 2.02 conceded against FCSB
- D 4.19 created, 1.65 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 qualified edges flagged7 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Farul Constanța 2+ goals | 1.91 | +11.9% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | +11.6% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | +8.6% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | +6.7% | Won |
| FC Farul Constanța to win | 2.00 | +5.2% | Won |
| FC Farul Constanța to score | 1.20 | +4.6% | Won |
| SC Oțelul Galați to score | 1.40 | +2.3% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Farul Constanța | 52.6% | 44.4% | +8.1 pp | 1.90 |
| Draw | 26.0% | 27.8% | −1.8 pp | 3.85 |
| SC Oțelul Galați | 21.4% | 27.8% | −6.4 pp | 4.67 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Farul Constanța to score | 87.2% | 78.3% | +8.9 pp | 1.15 |
| FC Farul Constanța not to score | 12.8% | 21.7% | −8.9 pp | 7.80 |
| SC Oțelul Galați to score | 73.1% | 66.3% | +6.8 pp | 1.37 |
| SC Oțelul Galați not to score | 26.9% | 33.7% | −6.8 pp | 3.71 |
| Both teams to score | 65.1% | 55.7% | +9.4 pp | 1.54 |
| Both teams not to score | 34.9% | 44.3% | −9.4 pp | 2.87 |
| FC Farul Constanța 2+ goals | 58.6% | 48.5% | +10.1 pp | 1.71 |
| FC Farul Constanța at most 1 goal | 41.4% | 51.5% | −10.1 pp | 2.42 |
| SC Oțelul Galați 2+ goals | 34.7% | 33.7% | +0.9 pp | 2.88 |
| SC Oțelul Galați at most 1 goal | 65.3% | 66.3% | −0.9 pp | 1.53 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.4% | 75.0% | +10.4 pp | 1.17 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.6% | 25.0% | −10.4 pp | 6.83 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.0% | 52.6% | +9.4 pp | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.0% | 47.4% | −9.4 pp | 2.63 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Farul Constanța sample
- 20 matches
- SC Oțelul Galați sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.